Galaxy Cuts CLARITY Act 2026 Passage Odds to 10%

Senate Faces Narrow Window in September

Galaxy's latest assessment comes as the Senate faces a tight legislative calendar.

Lawmakers are scheduled to return on Sept. 14, leaving only around two to three weeks for the Senate to make significant progress on the legislation, according to Galaxy's analysis.

Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, said the bill would need to consume almost the entire available working session if lawmakers do not begin the process immediately after returning to Washington.

Thorn shared the latest assessment on X, highlighting the increasingly difficult timeline for the legislation.

Alex Thorn's CLARITY Act assessment on X

Political Issues Continue to Hold Up the Bill

Several unresolved issues could make the bill's path through the Senate more difficult.

Galaxy identified ethics rules concerning government officials and crypto, protections for developers and disagreements surrounding stablecoin yield as key areas that lawmakers still need to address.

Pressure from the banking industry over stablecoin-related provisions has also complicated negotiations.

The CLARITY Act is intended to establish a broader regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States, including rules that would help define regulatory responsibilities across the crypto market.

Galaxy Has Repeatedly Cut Its Estimate

Galaxy's latest 10% estimate represents another major reduction from its earlier projections.

The firm initially placed the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 at 75% on May 22. It subsequently reduced that estimate to 60% in June, followed by another cut to 50% later that month.

Galaxy later lowered the probability to 30% in July, citing the shrinking legislative calendar and unresolved negotiations.

The latest 10% estimate therefore represents a significant deterioration in Galaxy's outlook over just a few months.

CLARITY Act Already Cleared Senate Banking Committee

Despite the growing uncertainty, the legislation has already made meaningful progress.

The Senate Banking Committee advanced the CLARITY Act in May with a 15-9 bipartisan vote, sending the legislation toward consideration by the full Senate.

The committee has described the bill as legislation designed to establish clearer rules for digital assets while addressing consumer protection, illicit finance and regulatory oversight.

U.S. Senate Banking Committee — CLARITY Act

The committee's consideration followed months of negotiations between lawmakers and stakeholders across the financial and digital-asset industries.

Stablecoin Yield Remains a Major Flashpoint

One of the biggest areas of disagreement involves stablecoin yield.

Critics have argued that provisions allowing crypto companies to offer certain yield-generating products could create an uneven regulatory environment compared with traditional banks.

Supporters of the legislation, meanwhile, argue that establishing clear rules could reduce regulatory uncertainty and encourage responsible digital-asset innovation in the United States.

The Senate Banking Committee has continued to publish material supporting the legislation and outlining its proposed regulatory framework.

Senate Banking Committee: CLARITY Act bill text and framework

What Happens Next?

The next major test will come when the Senate returns in September.

Galaxy's latest assessment suggests lawmakers have very little room for delays. If the Senate does not move quickly, the remaining legislative calendar could make passage in 2026 increasingly difficult.

For the crypto industry, the outcome is significant. The CLARITY Act could establish a clearer framework for digital assets in the U.S., potentially defining how different crypto assets and market participants are regulated.

For now, however, Galaxy believes the odds of the legislation becoming law this year have fallen to just 10%.

The bill's future will largely depend on whether lawmakers can resolve the remaining disputes and move the legislation through the Senate during its limited September window.