Bitcoin Q4 Price Peak Predictions Are “Statistical Fallacy,” Says Analyst PlanC

Analyst Challenges Q4 Bitcoin Peak Narrative

Bitcoin’s long-standing pattern of peaking in the fourth quarter may no longer hold true, according to crypto analyst PlanC, who says traders are misinterpreting probability.

“Anyone who thinks Bitcoin has to peak in Q4 of this year does not understand statistics or probability,” PlanC wrote in an X post on Friday, adding that betting on a Q4 peak is equivalent to “flipping a coin three times and assuming the fourth flip must land the same way.”

At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $111,238, consolidating after a volatile August.

Halving Cycle “No Longer Relevant”

PlanC argues that the widely cited four-year halving cycle is becoming less relevant in the current market environment. With the rise of Bitcoin ETFs, corporate treasuries, and sovereign buyers, he believes new factors outweigh the old cyclical framework.

“There is zero fundamental reason — other than a psychological, self-fulfilling prophecy — for the peak to occur in Q4 2025,” he said.

Historically, Q4 has been Bitcoin’s strongest quarter. Since 2013, Bitcoin has delivered an average return of 85.42% in Q4, according to CoinGlass data.

However, analysts who still subscribe to halving cycles warn that Bitcoin could begin a downtrend as early as October.

Source: UAE Plans to Launch Digital Dirham by Q4 2025 to Boost Financial Stability and Combat Financial Crime

Source: Daniel Sempere Pico

Market Divided on Timing of Bitcoin’s Bull Market Peak

The debate over whether Bitcoin will top in late 2025 or continue into 2026 remains active:

• Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, sees a greater than 50% chance Bitcoin reaches $140,000–$150,000 this year before a bear market emerges.

• Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise, expects the bull market to extend into 2026, saying: “I bet 2026 is an up year.”

• Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, and Joe Burnett of Unchained Market Research both projected $250,000 Bitcoin before the end of 2025.

This divergence shows that while institutional inflows and adoption are reshaping Bitcoin’s market structure, the exact timing of the next peak remains uncertain.

Bitcoin is up 96.15% over the past 12 months. Source: CoinMarketCap

Outlook: Statistics vs. Market Psychology

PlanC’s argument highlights a broader point—Bitcoin’s market structure is evolving, and relying solely on past halving cycles may no longer be statistically valid.

Whether Bitcoin tops out in Q4 or carries momentum into 2026, the key drivers appear to be ETF inflows, macroeconomic conditions, and institutional adoption rather than historical seasonality.

Related: Crypto Venture Capital Deals Decline in 2024, But Investment Value Rebounds in Q4

FAQs

1. Why does analyst PlanC call Q4 Bitcoin peak predictions a fallacy?

PlanC argues that assuming Bitcoin must peak in Q4 ignores probability and relies on flawed historical assumptions.

2. Is the halving cycle still relevant for Bitcoin?

PlanC believes halving cycles are less relevant today due to ETFs, corporate treasuries, and sovereign buyers reshaping Bitcoin demand.

3. What do other analysts predict for Bitcoin’s peak?

Forecasts vary widely: some expect $140K–$150K in 2025, while others see BTC reaching $250K before year-end or extending gains into 2026.

4. Why has Q4 historically been strong for Bitcoin?

Since 2013, Q4 has averaged 85% returns, but analysts caution that past seasonal strength may not repeat under new market dynamics.

5. What factors will drive Bitcoin’s next bull market peak?

ETF inflows, institutional adoption, and macroeconomic conditions are expected to play a bigger role than historical halving cycles.