Bitcoin Treasuries Add 630 BTC as ETFs See $300M in Outflows — Is This a Buy-the-Dip Signal?

Contrasting Strategies: Treasuries Buy, ETFs Sell Amid Market Uncertainty

In a striking divergence of sentiment, corporate Bitcoin treasuries added 630 BTC on Monday — even as spot Bitcoin ETFs offloaded over $300 million, signaling a growing split in how institutional players view the current BTC price range.

While some investors are rushing to de-risk, others see this as a prime opportunity to accumulate.

Corporate Treasuries Keep Accumulating

Data from Capriole Investments reveals that Bitcoin corporate treasuries acquired 630 BTC (worth approximately $72 million) on Monday, August 4 — the largest daily inflow for August so far.

This move follows a month-long accumulation trend, with July 21 marking the single biggest day of inflows at 26,700 BTC (~$3 billion).

“Bitcoin treasury inflows continue to show strong conviction,” noted Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole.

“Historically, when treasury sales exceed 1,500 BTC in a day, it often marks a local bottom.”

The last time that happened? March 31, 2025, when treasuries offloaded over 1,700 BTC and Bitcoin dropped to a local low of $74,500 shortly after — which eventually turned into a strong recovery zone.

BTC/USD one-day chart with treasury buys and sells. Source: Capriole Investments

Related: Bitwise Continues SEC Filing Streak with New Bitcoin and Treasuries Rotation Strategy ETF (BITC)

ETFs Show Sharp Outflows — But Analysts Remain Calm

While treasuries added, Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $323.5 million the same day.

• BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) was the hardest hit, shedding $292.2 million — one of its largest single-day outflows in 2025.

• This marks a significant shift in ETF sentiment, though some analysts believe this is more noise than signal.

Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas countered the pessimism on social media:

“A lot of dooming going on, but don’t be surprised if traders buy the dip. Why? Because it works — and has for literally decades.”

He shared historical data showing positive average weekly returns following dips, pointing to recurring "buy-the-dip" opportunities.

US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors

Bitcoin Price Update

• BTC/USD is currently trading around $115,000, down from its recent highs, but within the broader bull market channel.

• Despite ETF outflows, BTC remains well-supported by long-term holders, including corporate treasuries and sovereign wealth interest.

Is This a Buy Signal?

With ETFs pulling back and corporate buyers stepping in, market participants are divided:

• Bears see ETF outflows as a red flag for institutional sentiment.

• Bulls view treasury accumulation as a sign of long-term confidence.

Capriole’s historical data adds weight to the latter, showing that treasury buying often precedes price recoveries.

Meanwhile, analysts suggest that if ETF inflows resume and volatility metrics compress, it could be the beginning of another leg up.

BTC/USD one-day chart with treasury buys and sells. Source: Capriole Investments

Related: Bitcoin ETFs Face $812M Outflow, While Ether ETFs Snap 20-Day Inflow Streak

Final Take

While short-term market sentiment feels shaky, the fundamentals show a more complex picture:

• ETFs are experiencing withdrawals — but possibly just short-term repositioning.

• Treasuries are doubling down — signaling long-term conviction.

• Analysts still believe in the power of dip-buying, citing decades of data.

With Bitcoin sitting around key support levels and mixed signals across investor classes, the question remains:

Will this be another classic “buy the dip” opportunity — or is a deeper correction coming?

Stay tuned for more real-time crypto treasury data and ETF flow analysis.