Bitcoin Dips, But Market Mood Stays in ‘Greed’ Zone

Bitcoin’s price pulled back slightly to around $105,560, marking a 1.79% daily drop after nearly touching $108,000 the previous day. Despite the mild correction, broader crypto sentiment remains firmly positive, according to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which recorded a "Greed" score of 63 on Wednesday—just one point below the previous day.

This resilience comes amid increased speculation on whether Bitcoin will soon retest its all-time high of $111,970, last reached in late May 2025.

Entering Q3: A Historically Weak Quarter for Bitcoin

Although optimism has fueled recent price surges, analysts are cautious as Bitcoin enters the third quarter—statistically its slowest-performing stretch of the year.

According to Daan Crypto Trades, the crypto market often sees dampened activity and lower liquidity during the summer months, which historically puts a lid on major price movements.

Data from CoinGlass shows that Bitcoin has averaged a 5.47% gain in Q3 since 2013, which—if repeated—would place BTC at approximately $111,000 by September 30, just shy of its ATH.

“Q3 is typically quiet for both BTC and ETH. Less volume, less volatility,” Daan said in a social media post on Tuesday.

Bitcoin’s Q2 Performance Aligns with Historical Trends

Bitcoin ended Q2 on a strong note, climbing 31% to $108,383 by June 30—exceeding its average second-quarter return of 27% since 2014. Notably, June closed with Bitcoin’s strongest monthly candle to date, reinforcing bullish sentiment heading into July.

Bitcoin is trading at $105,560 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCap

Market Still Bitcoin-Dominant Despite Altcoin Lag

Bitcoin continues to dominate the market, with a 65.5% market share, up nearly 13% year-to-date, according to TradingView. Meanwhile, altcoins have struggled to keep pace.

CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index currently scores just 20 out of 100, reflecting a market still largely in "Bitcoin Season", with limited momentum for altcoins over the last 90 days.

SOL 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Analyst Caution: Bullish Momentum May Be Fading

Despite the overall bullish backdrop, some indicators are flashing caution. Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, noted on Wednesday that Bitcoin’s Bull Score—a metric used to gauge the strength of bullish trends—has slipped into neutral territory, currently reading 50.

“Bitcoin Bull Score needs to reach 60 or higher to support continued upward momentum,” Moreno explained.

Conclusion: Calm Before the Next Move?

As Q3 unfolds, Bitcoin’s performance will likely hinge on macroeconomic developments, ETF inflows, and market liquidity. While price action has cooled slightly, sentiment remains stronger than expected for this time of year, hinting that a larger move could still be on the horizon.

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