Bitcoin Momentum Fades as Analysts Signal Local Top—What Comes Next?

Bitcoin’s Bull Run Slows as On-Chain Data Points to Consolidation

After climbing nearly 41% in less than three months, Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent surge may be entering a pause phase, according to a new market update from Bitfinex analysts. With momentum indicators cooling and profit-taking on the rise, traders are increasingly cautious about the sustainability of further upside—at least in the short term.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $107,000, after rebounding sharply from its yearly low of $73,273 in early April.

Declining Volume Signals Potential Local Top

In their June 29 report, Bitfinex analysts noted that "vertical acceleration" in Bitcoin’s price is no longer in play—at least for now.

“Spot volume has cooled, taker buy pressure has weakened, and profit-taking has intensified,” they wrote, highlighting that short-term holders have been cashing out after gains from sub-$80K levels.

These metrics often point to a local top or a transition into consolidation, especially when accompanied by declining spot demand and a pullback in bullish momentum.

ETF Inflows Remain a Key Bullish Indicator

Despite fading momentum in spot markets, institutional appetite for Bitcoin remains strong—particularly through U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have been a major taiwind for BTC in 2024.

According to Farside Investors, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $4.63 billion in net inflows over the past 14 consecutive trading days as of June 27.

Economist Timothy Peterson emphasized the importance of these inflows, calling last week’s $2.2 billion ETF injection “massive,” and assigning a 70% probability that this bullish streak continues into the first week of July.

ETF inflows historically correlate with upward price pressure, particularly when sustained over multi-week periods.

Bitcoin is up 2.90% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap

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Macroeconomic Events Could Determine BTC’s Next Leg

Beyond on-chain signals, macroeconomic developments—especially those related to U.S. interest rates—may be the deciding factor in Bitcoin’s short-term direction.

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision on July 30. While the market currently gives only a 19% chance of a rate cut, any dovish pivot could boost risk assets, including crypto.

Lower rates typically benefit Bitcoin by weakening the U.S. dollar and increasing liquidity across global markets.

Why Bitcoin Is Stalling Despite Institutional Demand

While institutional inflows are rising, some analysts point to long-term holders—the so-called Bitcoin "OGs"—as a key reason why BTC has struggled to break and hold above $100K.

“Despite Wall Street’s growing appetite, OGs have been selling into strength,” said Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments. He noted that many early holders began reducing exposure shortly after spot ETFs went live in January 2024, putting consistent sell-side pressure on BTC.

This distribution by early investors has kept price gains in check, even amid what some are calling a new wave of institutional FOMO.

What to Expect Next for BTC?

While short-term charts suggest a cooling off, the broader trend for Bitcoin remains intact. Key support levels continue to hold, and consolidation at current prices may provide a healthier base for the next leg higher.

Economist Donald Dean supports this view, describing Bitcoin’s current structure as “tight consolidation at the volume shelf,” a classic pre-breakout behavior in trending markets.

Conclusion: Consolidation or Correction? Watch These Indicators

Bitcoin’s multi-month rally appears to be taking a breather, but the overall market remains structurally bullish. ETF inflows, macroeconomic shifts, and long-term holder behavior will likely define the direction of BTC in the coming weeks.

Key Levels to Watch:

• $107K resistance — Can BTC reclaim and hold this level?

• $100K psychological support — A critical pivot point if momentum wanes

• ETF inflow data — Continued net inflows could reignite the rally

• July 30 Fed decision — A rate cut could send BTC sharply higher

Related: Bitcoin Stalls Above $100K as Long-Term Holders Sell Into Institutional Demand