Bitcoin Hits $124K — Is This the Top or Just the Beginning of a Bigger Rally?

Bitcoin Sets New All-Time High at $124,450

Bitcoin (BTC) surged to a fresh all-time high of $124,450 during early Asian trading on Thursday before pulling back to around $121,670. While some traders see signs of market overheating, on-chain data suggests the bull run may still have room to run.

Prediction markets and analysts are now split on whether $124,000 marks the peak of this cycle or simply a pause before another leg higher.

Bitcoin funding rates and STH SOPR. Source: CryptoQuant

Related: Bitcoin Price Faces $95K Risk as Wyckoff Analysis Flags ‘Distribution Phase’

On-Chain Data Suggests the Rally Isn’t Over

Blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant reports that key overheating indicators remain subdued compared to past market tops:

• Funding rates — A rise in long positions is visible, but levels are still well below overheated peaks seen in prior cycles.

• Short-Term Holder (STH) SOPR — Currently at 1.01%, indicating limited profit-taking among short-term holders despite being back in profit.

• Capital inflows — Short-term inflows are modest, suggesting the rally is not yet driven by excessive leverage.

Historical data shows that in previous bull markets, funding rates and profit-taking activity spiked sharply before significant corrections. At present, Bitcoin’s metrics point to a more measured climb.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Captain Faibik

Related: Bitcoin Hits Record Weekly Close, Inches Within 3% of All-Time High

Technical Signals Warn of Possible Short-Term Top

Despite bullish on-chain readings, several technical indicators hint that Bitcoin could be due for a near-term pullback, according to popular analyst Captain Faibik:

• 9th TD Sell Candle — A common signal for potential trend exhaustion.

• Bearish divergence on the daily RSI, showing weakening momentum.

• Rising wedge pattern — Often a sign of diminishing buying pressure before a retracement.

Bitcoin’s RSI hit 72 (4-hour), 71 (12-hour), and 70 (daily) as prices topped, suggesting overbought conditions. The last time BTC hit similar RSI levels in July, it corrected about 6%, falling from $123,000 to $115,000.

BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: TradingView

What’s Next for BTC Price?

While technicals hint at a potential short-term cooling, history shows RSI overbought readings don’t always result in a trend reversal — especially in strong bull markets.

With institutional demand rising and global money supply growth continuing, Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory could still target much higher levels. CoinGlass’s bull market model even puts the possibility of a run toward $187,000 on the table before this cycle ends.