Bitcoin Price Faces $95K Risk as Wyckoff Analysis Flags ‘Distribution Phase’

BTC Price Momentum Weakens After Failed Breakout

Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to hold momentum above $100,000, with fresh technical analysis pointing toward a potential drop to the $95,000 zone—a level not seen since early May 2025.

As of Tuesday, BTC trades near $118,537, but a rejection following last week’s push to $122,000 has left traders wary. Analyst Mikybull Crypto described the move as “ugly,” noting that BTC/USD has slipped back into its previous trading range, a shift that could benefit altcoins in the short term.

Wyckoff Method Points to ‘Distribution’

According to ZAYK Charts, Bitcoin’s current structure fits the Wyckoff method’s “distribution phase”—a pattern that often precedes a market downturn.

• Accumulation phase in March–April 2025 was confirmed by bullish RSI divergence.

• Mark-up phase followed, pushing BTC to new all-time highs.

• Distribution phase now shows sideways movement and weakening momentum, with bearish RSI divergence.

If confirmed, the next step in the cycle could be a mark-down phase, bringing BTC toward $95,000.

Historically, the $92K–$95K range has acted as both strong support and resistance since November 2024.

BTC/USDT with Wyckoff analysis. Source: ZAYK Charts/X

Related: Steak ‘n Shake Credits Bitcoin for 11% Sales Boost in Q2, Outperforming U.S. Fast Food Rivals

CME Gap Adds Downside Confluence

Trader Daan Crypto Trades is eyeing a CME Bitcoin futures gap near $117,500 as a short-term magnet for price. This level aligns with the 4-hour 200-period moving averages (MA & EMA), creating a technical confluence zone.

“A wick into the $117K region would make me look more closely for fresh longs on strong alts,” Daan wrote on X.

Macro Factors Could Drive Volatility

Traders are also watching the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release for July, due later this week. Inflation data has historically influenced Bitcoin volatility, and with BTC hovering near key technical levels, a sharp move in either direction is possible.

BTC/USDT perpetual swaps four-hour chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Related: Bitcoin Price Could Retest $100K as Wyckoff Model Suggests Bullish Continuation

Key Takeaways

• $100K support is at risk if distribution phase plays out.

• $95K target aligns with historical price reaction zones.

• CME gap at $117.5K could be filled before the next major move.

• July CPI data may act as the catalyst for volatility.

Conclusion: Bulls Face a Critical Test

After months of steady gains, Bitcoin’s rally is showing signs of exhaustion on the daily chart. If the distribution phase confirms, traders may see a retest of the $95K region before another bullish leg. However, macro data and market sentiment in the coming days could determine whether BTC holds its ground—or begins a deeper correction.