Bitcoin Price Could Retest $100K as Wyckoff Model Suggests Bullish Continuation

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a significant drop of up to 21.4% over the past month, following its all-time high of approximately $109,300. Despite this recent decline, many analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's future price movement, with some predicting a continuation of the bullish trend in 2025.

Wyckoff Reaccumulation Model Points to $100K Retest

One technical analysis model that’s gaining attention is the Wyckoff reaccumulation pattern. This model, which follows a consolidation and accumulation phase after a strong upward trend, is often seen as a precursor to the next big move in the market.

The Wyckoff reaccumulation pattern consists of nine distinct phases:

• Preliminary Supply (PSY)
• Buying Climax (BC)
• Automatic Reaction (AR)
• Secondary Test (ST)
• Spring
• Test
• Last Point of Support (LPS)
• Sign of Strength (SOS)

As of February 26, Bitcoin seems to be in the "Test" phase of this pattern, according to independent market analyst SuperBro. In this phase, Bitcoin is revisiting the "Spring" phase low, which is around $85,950, in order to confirm this as a support level. This could signal a bullish continuation toward a new "Last Point of Support" (LPS) around $96,780.

The final phase of the Wyckoff reaccumulation model, the Sign of Strength (SOS), would mark the beginning of the next uptrend cycle. This phase would likely involve a successful retest of the previous high near $106,700 and a decisive breakout above the critical $100,000 level.

Interestingly, a similar pattern unfolded in August 2024, when Bitcoin rallied by 40%, moving from a low of $53,400 at the Spring phase to a high of $74,000 at the LPS.

Historical Context and Market Sentiment

In reflecting on past market movements, analyst Vijay Boyapati points to a similar consolidation phase in 2024. During this period, Bitcoin hovered between $50,000 and $70,000 for eight months before breaking upward following the November 2024 U.S. presidential election. Boyapati anticipates that Bitcoin may enter another long consolidation phase before making another decisive upward move, signaling that "the top is not in yet."

Bitcoin's Potential Bottom and Upcoming Price Action

Looking at Bitcoin’s weekly charts, there are indications that more price declines may be on the horizon. Historically, Bitcoin's price corrections from local highs have often led it to retrace toward its 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA), which currently sits around $76,390. This represents a 15% drop from current levels.

This $76,390 level also aligns with a multi-year ascending trendline, which has been a strong support level since November 2022. Additionally, the relative strength index (RSI) is currently at 52.65, a neutral reading that suggests there may still be room for further downward movement in the coming weeks.

A decisive close below the support confluence at $76,390 could accelerate Bitcoin’s price decline, with potential downside targets near the Fibonacci retracement levels at around $57,690 and $48,170. Notably, the latter level aligns with the 200-week EMA, which could provide additional support if the sell-off intensifies.

On the other hand, if Bitcoin manages to rebound from its interim support zone between $85,000 and $90,000, or from the stronger support confluence near $76,390, this could pave the way for a move toward the $100,000 mark. Such a move would be in line with the Wyckoff reaccumulation model's LPS target, suggesting that Bitcoin may still have significant upside potential in the near future.

Conclusion

While Bitcoin has faced recent corrections, technical models like the Wyckoff reaccumulation suggest that a bullish breakout could be on the horizon. As Bitcoin continues to test key support levels, traders and investors are watching closely to see whether cryptocurrency will resume its upward trend and potentially retest the $100,000 threshold. Whether Bitcoin bottoms out at its current support zones or dips further remains to be seen, but the long-term outlook remains promising for many analysts.