Bitcoin Market Cycles: It’s About Adoption, Not Just Halvings, Says Analyst

Analyst Challenges Halving-Centered Cycle Theory

Bitcoin’s market cycles may not be dictated by its halving events after all, according to James Check, a leading on-chain analyst.

Speaking on Wednesday, Check said Bitcoin has experienced three major market cycles, none of which were anchored directly around halving events. Instead, he believes cycles are defined by adoption trends, market structure, and investor maturity.

“In my opinion, Bitcoin has experienced three cycles, and they are not anchored around the halvings,” Check noted.

Related: Onchain Real-World Assets Gaining Traction Amid Bitcoin Market Uncertainty

Three Cycles of Bitcoin Adoption

Check outlined Bitcoin’s history through three distinct phases:

• 2011–2018: The “Adoption Cycle”

• Driven by early retail adoption as Bitcoin gained mainstream attention.

• 2018–2022: The “Adolescence Cycle”

• Characterized by speculative excess, leverage-driven booms, and painful busts.

• 2022–Present: The “Maturity Cycle”

• Marked by institutional involvement, greater stability, and a more sustainable market structure.

He added that after the 2022 bear market, relying on the halving cycle as the primary roadmap risks “mistaking historical noise for real signals.”

Bitcoin’s price (black) compared to James Check’s take on the cryptocurrency’s market cycles. Source: James Check

Halving Theory Still Has Supporters

Despite Check’s analysis, many analysts still see the four-year halving cycle as the guiding framework.

Historically, Bitcoin’s bull markets have peaked in the year following a halving event — 2013, 2017, and 2021 — and some expect the same pattern to repeat in 2025 after the most recent halving.

Check, however, believes the current cycle could extend, describing Bitcoin as “literally the only other endgame asset alongside gold.”

Industry Voices on the Four-Year Cycle

Other prominent voices in the industry have questioned the halving model:

• Matthew Hougan (Bitwise CIO): Said the traditional cycle won’t be “officially over” until positive returns extend into 2026, but he expects the four-year pattern to be broken.

• TechDev (Entrepreneur, 546K X followers): Argued that global liquidity cycles explain Bitcoin’s peaks and troughs better than halvings, with this cycle likely entering an extended bullish phase.

Still, some firms remain cautious. Glassnode analysts noted on Aug. 20 that Bitcoin is showing late-cycle behavior, pointing to profit-taking and elevated selling pressure.

Related: Bitcoin ‘Golden Cross’ That Sparked 2,000% BTC Gains Is Already Here

Macroeconomic factors such as dollar liquidity and ETF inflows may have extended the bullish phase. Source: TechDev

Meanwhile, trader Bob Loukas offered a pragmatic view:

“We’re always in cycles. We pump until it bursts, because we just want more. Then we start again. The only difference is how much shrapnel you avoid and how quickly you reset.”

Conclusion: Adoption vs. Halving Cycles

The debate over Bitcoin’s true cycle drivers is far from settled. While traditionalists stick to the halving-centered four-year model, others like James Check argue that adoption dynamics and institutional flows are now the dominant forces.

Whether the current run ends in 2025 or extends into 2026, the growing consensus is clear: Bitcoin may be outgrowing its past playbook, with cycles increasingly shaped by global liquidity and investor maturity rather than mining supply shocks alone.

Related: Bitcoin Price Stagnates Below $112K Amid Global Uncertainty