Bitcoin Price Stagnates Below $112K Amid Global Uncertainty

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading in a tight range for over five weeks, failing to break above the critical $112,000 level. Despite multiple attempts, the leading cryptocurrency remains under key resistance, struggling to regain the bullish momentum seen earlier in the year. As of June 19, Bitcoin trades around $105,001, with a combination of macroeconomic, geopolitical, and technical factors contributing to the ongoing price stagnation.

1. Geopolitical Uncertainty Weighs on Risk Appetite

Recent escalations in the Middle East, particularly the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran, have created a risk-off environment in global markets. Investors are increasingly turning to traditional safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasurys, with gold prices recently nearing record highs. In contrast, risk-on assets such as Bitcoin are seeing a dip in demand.

Adding to the pressure was the $81 million cyberattack on Iran-based crypto exchange Nobitex, reportedly by a pro-Israel hacker group. This event underscores the vulnerabilities of the digital asset sector amid rising geopolitical tensions and cyber warfare, further denting investor confidence.

BTC/USD weekly chart. TradingView

Though Bitcoin is often likened to “digital gold,” its historical correlation with equities during times of crisis means it tends to underperform alongside other risk assets. In fact, Bitcoin has dropped over 3.6% since the initial Israeli strike, reflecting investor hesitation in volatile environments.

2. Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady, Dampens Crypto Bulls

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision on June 18 to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% has added to the headwinds for Bitcoin. The central bank’s cautious tone reflects concerns about sticky inflation, with the core PCE index remaining elevated at 2.8%.

Additionally, rising trade tariffs under President Donald Trump’s administration have sparked fears of renewed price pressures, leading the Fed to scale back its rate cut projections. The updated “dot plot” now shows just two expected cuts in 2025—down from four—signaling tighter-than-anticipated monetary policy.

Markets are now pricing in only a 58.4% chance of a rate cut in September, reducing liquidity expectations and strengthening the U.S. dollar. This stronger dollar typically suppresses risk asset performance, including cryptocurrencies.

Crypto analysts have described the Fed's inflation battle as highly atypical. Some firms now believe the Fed may guide toward just one rate cut in 2025, which could reduce speculative momentum in assets like Bitcoin.

Target rate possibilities for Sept. 17 FOMC meeting. Source: FedWatch Tool

3. Technical Indicators Highlight Strong Resistance

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is locked below three major moving averages:

• 100-period SMA: $106,000

• 50-period SMA: $106,040

• 200-period SMA: $106,400

This cluster of resistance levels is creating a strong supply zone, preventing Bitcoin from making a meaningful breakout. Since June 17, BTC has fluctuated between $103,600 and $105,500, with every rally attempt being rejected around $106,000.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 46, reflecting market indecision. Meanwhile, low spot market volume—especially on major exchanges like Binance—confirms a lack of conviction among traders.

Moreover, a potential bearish crossover of the 50-period SMA dipping below the 100-period SMA in the 4-hour chart suggests waning short-term momentum. This setup increases the risk of continued sideways price action unless there’s a fundamental catalyst.

BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: TradingView

4. Possible Near-Term Relief From Derivatives Market

Despite the ongoing consolidation, some short-term relief may come from the derivatives market. Favorable conditions, such as an overcrowded short position, could trigger a short squeeze, temporarily driving prices higher. However, any rally may still struggle to break past the psychological and technical barrier near $112,000 without improved fundamentals.

Conclusion: What’s Next for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin remains caught in a holding pattern, with multiple layers of resistance preventing a push toward new highs. Geopolitical risks, a strong U.S. dollar, cautious monetary policy, and technical headwinds are all playing a role in keeping prices contained.

Until either macroeconomic clarity emerges or Bitcoin decisively breaks above $106,400 with volume, sideways consolidation is likely to continue. Traders should remain cautious in the near term while watching for any signs of renewed strength or momentum shifts that could propel BTC beyond its current range.