Bitcoin at $200K in 2025? Analyst Calls 2024 Target ‘Very Improbable’

Bitcoin’s $200K Dream Faces Short-Term Headwinds

Despite growing speculation among crypto executives that Bitcoin (BTC) could hit $200,000 this year, Glassnode lead analyst James Check says such a move is highly unlikely.

“How on earth can we be going up when there is no volume?” Check questioned in an interview on Tuesday. With Bitcoin trading near $118,802, he believes the current buying activity is insufficient to sustain such a massive rally.

$200,000 in 2024: A ‘Very Improbable’ Move

At its current price, Bitcoin’s market capitalization stands at $2.38 trillion, according to data from Nansen. A rise to $200,000 would nearly double its market cap, a leap Check describes as “a big move.”

“Could it happen? Absolutely. Is it likely to happen? Very improbable,” he said.

Check added that Bitcoin must first hold several key levels — $120K, $130K, $140K, and beyond — before even approaching the $200K mark. He warned that a parabolic surge without strong volume support could lead to equally sharp corrections.

“You need to follow through; otherwise, you’re trading through air, and you’re going to trade like it’s air on the way back down,” he explained.

Source: Sina G.

Related: Bitcoin Wrench Attacks Surge as 2025 Sets New Record Pace

Long-Term Bullish Outlook

Despite his short-term caution, Check remains long-term bullish on Bitcoin, revealing that most of his net worth is in BTC.

“In five years’ time, Bitcoin will be well and truly past the $200,000 price level,” he predicted.

Analysts Still Bullish on $200K by 2025

Other prominent analysts remain optimistic about a $200K price target — but they expect it in 2025, not 2024:

• Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise, projects  $200,000 by late 2025 due to a supply shock fueled by spot Bitcoin ETFs and growing institutional demand.

• apsk32, a well-followed market analyst, believes BTC will surpass $200,000 in Q4 2025, citing long-term trend patterns and historical price cycles.

• Bernstein Research has maintained a $200,000 price target since October 2024, backed by strong ETF inflows and corporate Bitcoin treasuries.

• Rekt Capital recently cautioned that BTC’s price expansion phase may be limited, particularly if it follows the same post-halving pattern as in 2020.

Conclusion

While $200,000 Bitcoin in 2024 remains unlikely, the long-term trajectory for BTC still points upward, driven by institutional adoption, ETF demand, and halving cycle dynamics. Investors may need to look to 2025 or beyond for such ambitious price milestones.

Related: Bitcoin Price Poised for Consolidation, But a July ATH Still Possible