Bitcoin Price Poised for Consolidation, But a July ATH Still Possible

Bitcoin May ‘Pause for Air’ After Massive Rally

After reaching a new all-time high of $122,884 earlier this week, Bitcoin has slightly retraced to $118,098 (per Nansen data). According to Michael Harvey, head of franchise trading at Galaxy Digital, the recent rally could lead to a short period of price consolidation before the next leg up.

“Consolidation around current prices is my base case given the large rally and new ATH,” Harvey told Cointelegraph.

Upside Scenario: Slow Melt-Up Through July

Harvey believes that Bitcoin’s best-case scenario involves a “continued slow melt-up” toward the end of July, with a potential to hit fresh highs if certain conditions align:

• Sustained inflows into U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs

• Continued Bitcoin accumulation by corporate treasuries

• A surge in retail demand

Bitcoin is trading at $118,098 at the time of publication. Source: Nansen

While ETF flows remain robust and institutional interest is strong, retail participation appears lukewarm. For example, Coinbase’s jump to No. 137 on the U.S. Apple App Store suggests a mild uptick in retail activity, but Google search trends for “Bitcoin” remain low, signaling that mass retail demand hasn’t fully kicked in.

Bearish Outlook: Risk of a Pullback Below $110K

On the downside, Harvey warns of a potential 5–10% correction if profit-taking intensifies or if equity markets weaken:

“Bear case is a risk-off move driven by profit taking and/or equity market weakness, which I believe could see BTC retrace 5–10%.”

This scenario could drag Bitcoin’s price below $110,000 in the near term.

Cycle Analysis: Are We Nearing the Top?

Before Bitcoin broke its May all-time high of $112,000 on July 9, popular analyst Rekt Capital cautioned that the current market cycle may have limited upside left, particularly if it mirrors the 2020 cycle.

Rekt Capital suggests that if Bitcoin follows the historical 550-day post-halving pattern (based on the April 2024 halving), the cycle peak could occur in October 2025.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin hit $122,884 before correcting to $118,098.

• Analysts expect consolidation but see a possible July ATH if bullish catalysts persist.

• Bearish risks could push Bitcoin back below $110,000.

• Market cycle analysis hints at a potential peak around October 2025.Bitcoin Price Poised for Consolidation, But a July ATH Still Possible

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