Bitcoin’s Rally Far From Over, Says Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered Bank has reaffirmed its bullish stance on Bitcoin, forecasting new all-time highs in the coming months. In a research note released Wednesday, Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at the bank, projected that Bitcoin could climb to $135,000 by the end of Q3 2025, and further break above $200,000 by December.

This upward revision comes amid surging demand from institutional investors, particularly through spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury allocations.

ETF Inflows and Corporate Adoption Driving Price Momentum

Kendrick emphasized that the structural dynamics of the Bitcoin market have fundamentally shifted. Unlike in past halving cycles — which typically led to significant corrections 12–18 months after the event — the current cycle is being buoyed by two new forces:

Record-breaking inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs

Increased adoption of Bitcoin by corporate treasuries

“Thanks to increased investor flows, we believe BTC has moved beyond the previous dynamic whereby prices fell 18 months after a halving,” Kendrick noted.

These factors, absent in 2016 and 2020, are expected to cushion Bitcoin against the cyclical downturns often seen post-halving.

An excerpt from Standard Chartered’s Bitcoin report issued on Wednesday. Source: Standard Chartered

Halving Cycle May No Longer Be Relevant

Traditionally, Bitcoin’s halving events — which reduce mining rewards by 50% approximately every four years — have triggered bullish rallies followed by deep corrections. The last two halvings were followed by peaks and subsequent declines within 18 months.

However, Standard Chartered believes the halving cycle may no longer dictate market behavior. The April 2024 halving, according to Kendrick, is likely to be an exception to historical patterns.

“We expect prices to resume their uptrend, supported by continued strong ETF and Bitcoin treasury buying,” he stated.

Still, the bank warns that some price volatility is likely in late Q3 and early Q4, as traders remain wary of historical halving-related corrections.

Long-Term Price Outlook: $500K by 2028

This latest report reinforces Standard Chartered’s long-term bullish thesis on Bitcoin. In earlier forecasts, the bank projected a potential Bitcoin price of $500,000 by 2028, underpinned by mass institutional adoption and continued macroeconomic tailwinds.

Conclusion: New Market Structure Sets Bitcoin Up for Sustained Growth

While past halving cycles triggered predictable boom-bust patterns, Standard Chartered argues that the presence of ETFs and treasury adoption is changing the game. If the bank’s predictions play out, Bitcoin could be on track for a new paradigm — one marked by higher highs and reduced cyclical volatility.

With $135,000 in sight by Q3 and $200,000 a possible reality by year-end, investors may see 2025 as a defining year for Bitcoin's transition into a mature institutional asset class.

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