XRP Price Rebounds 50% From $1.12 Low: 4 Indicators Suggest a Major Bottom May Be In

XRP has staged an impressive 50% rebound after hitting a 15-month low of $1.12 on Feb. 6. The token recently climbed to $1.67 before stabilizing near $1.43 — still more than 60% below its multi-year high of $3.66.

While the broader market remains cautious, several technical, on-chain, and institutional data points suggest the $1.12 level may represent a significant long-term bottom. Here are four key signals pointing toward a possible trend reversal.

1. Exchange Supply Falls to Five-Year Low

On-chain data shows a sharp decline in XRP balances held on centralized exchanges. Total exchange reserves have dropped to 12.9 billion XRP, levels last seen in May 2021.

A declining exchange balance typically indicates that holders are moving tokens into self-custody rather than preparing to sell. Reduced available supply on exchanges often lowers immediate sell pressure and can support price recovery.

Additional exchange-level data shows Binance’s XRP reserves have fallen to approximately 2.57 billion XRP, with both short- and medium-term moving averages trending downward. When reserves decline while price consolidates near lows, it can increase the probability of a supply squeeze during renewed demand.

2. Funding Rates Hit Extreme Negative Levels

Derivatives markets also show signs of potential exhaustion among sellers.

When XRP dropped to $1.12, Binance funding rates fell to -0.028%, their lowest level since April 2025. Negative funding rates mean short traders are paying long traders, reflecting an overcrowded bearish position.

Historically, extreme negative funding has often preceded strong relief rallies. A comparable setup in April 2025 was followed by a 65% surge from $1.60 to $2.65, driven largely by short covering.

Meanwhile, XRP futures open interest has dropped to $2.53 billion, down 55% from early January’s $4.55 billion peak. This reduction in leverage suggests traders are de-risking rather than aggressively shorting, which may signal weakening bearish conviction.

3. Spot Taker CVD Turns Positive

The 90-day spot taker cumulative volume delta (CVD) has recently flipped positive. This metric measures whether aggressive buyers (taker buys) or sellers dominate trading activity.

After weeks of neutral readings, the CVD turned green, indicating that buyers are stepping in more aggressively at current levels.

Sustained positive CVD historically aligns with early-stage recoveries, as demand absorbs available supply. If this trend continues, it could provide the foundation for another upward leg.

4. XRP ETFs Continue Attracting Capital

Institutional flows remain a key supporting factor.

US-based spot XRP exchange-traded funds have recorded inflows on 53 out of 59 trading days since launching in November 2025. Recent data shows:

• $4.5 million in inflows on Friday

• $1.23 billion in cumulative inflows

• Over $1.01 billion in assets under management

Even during a broader crypto market downturn — where digital asset investment products saw $173 million in weekly outflows — XRP exchange-traded products attracted $33.4 million in inflows for the week ending Feb. 13.

Persistent inflows during price weakness often reflect long-term positioning by institutional investors rather than short-term speculation.

Is $1.12 the Generational Bottom?

Several independent indicators now align:

• Exchange supply at multi-year lows

• Deeply negative funding rates signaling short exhaustion

• Falling open interest suggesting reduced leverage risk

• Positive spot CVD showing renewed demand

• Consistent ETF inflows despite market volatility

While confirmation of a full trend reversal requires sustained higher highs and stronger momentum, the confluence of these metrics increases the probability that $1.12 marked a structural bottom rather than a temporary bounce point.

If buying pressure continues and derivatives positioning resets, XRP could transition from recovery mode into a broader bullish phase in the coming weeks.

See all our insights: Bitcoin World News