US Government to Hold Existing Bitcoin but Will Not Purchase More in 2025, Says Galaxy Research

Galaxy Digital’s research division has forecast that the U.S. government will not purchase any additional Bitcoin in 2025. However, the government is expected to explore an expanded Bitcoin reserve policy, focusing on safeguarding its existing Bitcoin holdings.

In a report released on December 27, Alex Thorn, the head of research at Galaxy Research, stated that while the U.S. government will not buy more Bitcoin next year, it will maintain and protect its current Bitcoin stockpile. Thorn also noted that discussions about an official Bitcoin reserve policy are likely to continue within U.S. government agencies.

US Government’s Current Bitcoin Holdings and Potential Reserve Policy

As of now, the U.S. government holds 183,850 BTC, valued at approximately $17.36 billion. These holdings are spread across various known addresses, largely stemming from law enforcement seizures in criminal investigations.

Thorn mentioned that there will be some movement within U.S. departments and agencies to further explore the idea of an "expanded Bitcoin reserve policy." The idea of integrating Bitcoin into the government’s official reserve system has been gaining traction, especially with proposals like Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis’ "Bitcoin Act 2024." If passed, the act would enable the U.S. government to purchase 200,000 BTC annually for five years, eventually accumulating 1 million Bitcoin, which would be held as a reserve asset for at least 20 years.

While the proposal remains in its early stages, it reflects a growing interest in Bitcoin as a potential reserve asset, with some analysts believing that the U.S. government could lead the way in global Bitcoin adoption.

Global Interest in Bitcoin Reserves

Galaxy Digital's research suggests that the potential adoption of Bitcoin by the U.S. government could spark competition among other nation-states, particularly those with large sovereign wealth funds or geopolitical interests that are at odds with the U.S. According to Galaxy’s analyst “JW,” the U.S. government’s stance could trigger a race among nations, particularly those that are unaligned or adversarial to the United States, to acquire or mine Bitcoin.

“Competition among nation-states will drive the adoption of strategies to mine or otherwise acquire Bitcoin,” JW stated, pointing to the growing importance of Bitcoin as a strategic asset.

Global Reactions and Potential Adoptions

The prospect of Bitcoin becoming a reserve asset has garnered attention from various countries. On December 26, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba expressed uncertainty about his country’s stance on Bitcoin adoption. He noted that Japan does not yet have a clear understanding of how countries like the U.S. might proceed with adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset, making it difficult for the government to take an official position.

Meanwhile, former Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao suggested that China could be one of the first major countries to adopt a Bitcoin reserve. Speaking at the Bitcoin MENA conference in Abu Dhabi on December 9, Zhao predicted that smaller nations might lead the charge in adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset. However, he emphasized that this shift would likely happen gradually over time.

Looking Ahead: Bitcoin as a Strategic Asset

While the U.S. government is not expected to purchase Bitcoin in 2025, the growing conversation about Bitcoin as a reserve asset signals broader interest in the cryptocurrency as part of a nation’s strategic reserves. As countries like the U.S. and China evaluate the potential of Bitcoin, it’s clear that the asset’s role on the global stage is evolving.

Whether other nations will follow the U.S. or China in acquiring Bitcoin for their sovereign wealth funds or national reserves remains to be seen. However, the possibility of a “race” to secure Bitcoin among nation-states could transform the cryptocurrency into a cornerstone of global financial strategies in the coming years.