US-China Trade Deal Could Reveal Bitcoin’s Role as Safe-Haven Asset, Say Analysts

Bitcoin’s Performance Around US-China Trade Deal May Clarify Its Role as a Safe-Haven Asset

As the United States and China inch closer to a possible trade agreement, traders and analysts are closely watching Bitcoin’s price reaction for clues about its evolving role in global markets — especially as a potential hedge against economic uncertainty.

Crypto trader “Daan Crypto” noted on May 11 that Bitcoin ($BTC) showed surprising resilience during a major stock market sell-off in April. This coincided with former President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on China during what he called “Liberation Day.” In contrast to tumbling indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, Bitcoin surged nearly 27% from its April 7 low of $75,000 to close the month near $95,000.

At the time, analysts speculated whether Bitcoin’s strong performance stemmed from its perception as a tool for countries or investors to sidestep tariff impacts or capital controls. Daan suggested that if this were true, the conclusion of trade negotiations should reduce Bitcoin’s outperformance.

“Theoretically speaking, if the trade uncertainty was what was making BTC outperform, it should stop outperforming after we hit the most important deal, which includes China,” Daan said.

As of May 11, the White House reported “substantial progress” in trade talks, though no formal agreement has been announced. “We will be giving details tomorrow,” said U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, emphasizing the talks were “productive.”

Still, Daan observed that if Bitcoin continues to outperform even after a deal is struck, “it’s safe to assume that tariffs likely have little direct impact on how BTC is treated or used.”

Other market participants view the trade developments differently. Jeff Mei, COO of crypto exchange BTSE, told Cointelegraph that institutional interest in Bitcoin could rise with the dual tailwinds of a trade agreement and possible interest rate cuts. “Institutional investors are less apprehensive about investing in Bitcoin and crypto as US-China trade talks come to a conclusion,” he said.

Jupiter Zheng, a researcher at HashKey Capital, added that trade resolution could stabilize global markets and drive capital into risk assets like Bitcoin, especially if the deal weakens the U.S. dollar or enhances liquidity in emerging economies. “Bitcoin could also see new highs as a result,” Zheng said.

However, others remain cautious. Analyst Will Clemente commented on X that any real momentum for Bitcoin will likely depend on a “tangible” agreement. “Feels like you’re gonna need a real, tangible announcement on the China front to keep things moving here locally,” he wrote, noting that Bitcoin’s momentum appeared to be stalling after its strong rally.

As markets await a formal announcement, Bitcoin’s response could serve as a critical signal for how investors view its role — whether as a geopolitical hedge or simply a high-growth digital asset.