Stars Align for Bitcoin to Hit $100K — But Futures Traders Stay Cautious

Bitcoin’s Path to $100K Looks Promising, But Derivatives Traders Remain Wary

Bitcoin (BTC) is edging closer to the highly anticipated $100,000 milestone, buoyed by strong institutional demand and robust spot ETF inflows. On May 1, BTC surged past $97,900, marking a 10-week high and breaking free from a week-long consolidation range between $93,000 and $95,600. Yet, despite this technical breakout, futures and options data reveal a market still grappling with caution.

Institutional Demand Grows, But Traders Hold Back

The recent rally has been underpinned by more than $3.6 billion in net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past two weeks — a sign that traditional finance continues to warm up to BTC. However, traders remain skeptical that this momentum can be sustained, particularly amid global macroeconomic headwinds and a looming trade war between the U.S. and China.

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

Despite the price increase, the annualized premium for Bitcoin’s two-month futures contracts has held steady between 6% and 7%, within the neutral range of 5% to 10%. By contrast, in January — when Bitcoin hovered around $95,000 — the premium exceeded 10%, reflecting stronger conviction in the market at the time. The current numbers suggest that traders are less confident in a rally past $100,000, at least in the near term.

Gold Rally Outshines Bitcoin’s Modest Gains

Bitcoin recently surpassed silver’s $1.8 trillion market cap, becoming the seventh-largest tradable asset globally, but it’s still in the shadow of gold’s commanding presence. Gold has rallied 20%, jumping from $2,680 to $3,220 and reaching a staggering $21.7 trillion valuation — more than ten times Bitcoin's.

This has further weakened Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative. With its continued high correlation to the stock market, some investors question Bitcoin’s role as a true safe haven asset during times of global uncertainty.

\Bitcoin spot US-listed ETFs daily net flows, USD. Source: CoinGlass

Are ETF Inflows Really Bullish?

Although ETF inflows look bullish on the surface, there’s growing speculation that much of the recent activity is driven by delta-neutral strategies. These strategies involve buying spot BTC and shorting futures to hedge exposure — actions that don’t necessarily drive price appreciation.

If this is the case, the billions entering ETFs may simply represent portfolio reallocations or hedging moves, not fresh bullish momentum. This would explain why Bitcoin has only gained around 5% during the same two-week period of significant inflows

Options Market Signals Upside — Cautiously

On a more positive note, the BTC options market suggests that large players are becoming more optimistic. The 25% delta skew — a key indicator of market sentiment — is now at its most bullish level since February 15. This implies that traders are assigning a higher probability to further upside, and call (buy) options are increasingly favored over puts (sell options).

Importantly, this optimism is not accompanied by aggressive leverage, which can often lead to overheated markets and sharp corrections. Instead, traders appear to be positioning conservatively, leaving room for a potential surprise breakout if momentum builds.

Bitcoin 1-month options 25% delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch

Global Trade Tensions Loom Large

The biggest wildcard for Bitcoin remains macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China. As long as the dispute continues to weigh on global growth and investor sentiment, Bitcoin is expected to closely track movements in the S&P 500, limiting its potential for an independent breakout.

Outlook: Slow Grind or Surprise Surge?

While Bitcoin derivatives data show moderate optimism, caution continues to define trader behavior. The restrained use of leverage and the lack of conviction in futures markets may reflect healthy skepticism — or could be setting the stage for an unexpected rally fueled by sidelined capital.

For now, Bitcoin’s journey to $100K remains technically plausible but fundamentally fragile, shaped as much by global politics as by crypto-native catalysts.