Only Around 10,000 Bitcoin Face Real Quantum Risk, CoinShares Says

Quantum fears over Bitcoin may be overstated

Concerns that quantum computers could soon undermine Bitcoin’s cryptographic security may be exaggerated, according to digital asset manager CoinShares. The firm argues that only a small portion of Bitcoin is both technically vulnerable and economically worthwhile to attack.

In a recent analysis, CoinShares’ Head of Bitcoin Research Christopher Bendiksen estimated that just 10,230 BTC out of roughly 1.63 million potentially exposed Bitcoin are held in wallet addresses that present a realistic incentive for a quantum attack.

At current prices, that amount represents approximately $719 million—a figure Bendiksen suggests could resemble a routine large trade rather than a systemic threat.

Where the quantum-vulnerable Bitcoin is concentrated

According to the analysis, Bitcoin wallets with publicly exposed cryptographic keys fall into several size categories:

• Over 7,000 BTC are held in wallets containing 100–1,000 BTC

• Around 3,230 BTC are stored in wallets holding 1,000–10,000 BTC

• The remaining 1.62 million BTC sit in wallets with less than 100 BTC each

While smaller wallets account for the majority of potentially vulnerable coins, Bendiksen argues they are not practical targets.

Even under what he describes as an “outlandishly optimistic scenario” for quantum computing advances, each of these smaller wallets would take hundreds to thousands of years to compromise individually.

Why quantum attacks remain theoretical

The perceived risk comes from well-known quantum algorithms:

• Shor’s algorithm, which could theoretically break elliptic-curve cryptography used in Bitcoin signatures

• Grover’s algorithm, which could weaken SHA-256 hashing efficiency

However, Bendiksen stresses that neither method would allow attackers to alter Bitcoin’s 21 million supply cap or bypass its proof-of-work consensus, two pillars of the network’s design.

In short, even successful cryptographic attacks would not equate to control over the Bitcoin network itself.

Bitcoin’s scale dwarfs current quantum capabilities

Bendiksen also highlighted the massive technological gap between today’s quantum computers and what would be required to threaten Bitcoin.

Cracking Bitcoin’s cryptography would likely require millions of fault-tolerant qubits, far beyond current capabilities. By comparison, Google’s latest quantum processor, Willow, operates with just over 100 qubits.

“Recent advancements represent progress, but they fall dramatically short of the scale required for real-world attacks on Bitcoin,” Bendiksen said.

UTXO wallets and the Satoshi-era factor

The Bitcoin considered most exposed consists largely of unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs)—coins tied to wallet addresses that have never been spent. Many of these wallets date back to the early Satoshi era, when address reuse was more common.

This historical context has intensified debate within the Bitcoin community about whether the network should proactively adopt quantum-resistant cryptography.

A divided Bitcoin community

Opinions on the quantum threat vary sharply:

• Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of Strategy, and Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, argue that quantum risks are exaggerated and unlikely to materialize for decades.

• Bendiksen aligns with this view, stating Bitcoin is “nowhere near dangerous territory.”

• Others, including Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, consider quantum computing a potential existential threat and advocate for preemptive upgrades.

Edwards has suggested that implementing quantum-resistant solutions could even lead to a repricing of Bitcoin, as long-term uncertainty is removed.

Blockstream researcher Jonas Nick has pointed to post-quantum signature schemes as one possible future upgrade path.

Conclusion: A manageable risk, not an imminent threat

While quantum computing continues to advance, CoinShares’ analysis suggests that Bitcoin faces no immediate danger. Only a small fraction of BTC is realistically worth attacking, and the technology required to do so remains far beyond current reach.

For now, quantum computing appears to be a long-term consideration, not a catalyst for near-term disruption—leaving Bitcoin’s core security model intact.

Sources & references

• CoinShares Research: Quantum Vulnerability in Bitcoin

https://coinshares.com/corp/insights/research-data/quantum-vulnerability-in-bitcoin-a-manageable-risk/

• Dom Kwok on X: Commentary on quantum risk

https://x.com/dom_kwok/status/2019117549137387870

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