Quantile Regression Model Predicts Bitcoin Price Could Reach $275K by November 2025

A new model using quantile regression hints that Bitcoin (BTC) could reach a staggering $275,000 by November 2025. Some analysts even believe the price could go as high as $300,000 within the same time frame.

After experiencing a 3.45% drop on September 30, Bitcoin narrowly missed the opportunity to form a monthly bullish engulfing candle for the first time since January 2023. Despite this, Bitcoin’s year-long bull flag remains intact, with a bullish breakout predicted once BTC surpasses the $68,000-$70,000 range.

Predicting the Cycle Top at $275K

Bitcoin researcher Smithson With has introduced a novel approach to forecasting Bitcoin’s cycle top using a quantile regression model. In an X post, With explained that quantile regression focuses on extremes, analyzing cumulative BTC data to form percentiles. This method, according to the researcher, helps in studying Bitcoin's returns over time, considering factors such as supply, volatility, distribution, and survivability in risky environments.

Unlike traditional linear regression, quantile regression is particularly insightful for evaluating outcomes at the extremes — in this case, focusing on the 99th percentile. The model With has developed leverages Bitcoin price data dating back to July 2013, revealing a quasi-exponential decay trend. This means the deviations from Bitcoin's price trajectory have either halved or doubled periodically over time.

With’s model suggests that by November 2025, Bitcoin’s price could reach as high as $275,000, and further analysis could narrow down this estimate to a range of $250,000 to $300,000.

Key Support Levels and Market Outlook

After falling to $62,825 on September 30, Bitcoin quickly bounced back to $64,000. According to Luckshury, a lead analyst at Exocharts, Bitcoin’s uptrend is likely to continue as long as the key support level of $63,200 holds. This price point represents the Point of Control (POC), the level where the most trading activity has occurred during the recent uptrend.

Luckshury added that a breakout above the overhead resistance at $64,700 would trigger the next bullish leg for Bitcoin. However, if BTC were to lose the $63,200 support level in the coming days, it could shift the market trend and potentially initiate a correction phase.

As Bitcoin moves forward, these technical levels will be crucial to watch, with both traders and investors looking toward the potential of a significant price rally in the lead-up to 2025.