Polymarket Launches Fort Knox Audit Prediction Markets Amid Growing Calls for Transparency

Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market platform, has introduced two new markets focusing on the possibility of a much-debated audit of the United States' gold reserves at Fort Knox. This move comes as pressure mounts on U.S. President Donald Trump to act on calls for greater transparency regarding the gold holdings stored at the Fort Knox Bullion Depository.

On February 17, Polymarket launched two related prediction markets: one predicting whether the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk, will audit the U.S. gold reserves by May 2025, and another focused on the potential outcomes of such an audit.

As of now, the betting odds on Polymarket show a 56% chance that the audit will take place by April 2025, signaling some skepticism about whether the push for transparency will result in the first official audit of the U.S. Treasury’s gold reserves since 1974. While the odds suggest uncertainty, the surge of interest in these markets highlights the increasing public focus on the issue.

Pressure Builds for an Audit

The call for an audit has gained traction in recent days. On February 16, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul publicly advocated for the audit of Fort Knox’s gold reserves, and his initiative has since been joined by several commentators and political figures. Notably, conservative political commentator Glenn Beck sent a letter to President Trump on February 17, urging him to take action. In his letter, Beck stressed that a Fort Knox audit would help restore public trust in the U.S. government’s finances.

Beck proposed bringing a camera crew under strict security to document and verify the presence of America’s gold reserves. He emphasized that such a move could solidify Trump’s legacy as a champion of transparency and “America First” policies. However, despite this mounting pressure, President Trump has yet to make any public statement on the matter.

Trump’s Previous Remarks on U.S. Gold Reserves

Interestingly, President Trump has previously cast doubt on the U.S. government's gold holdings. During his presidential campaign in 2015, Trump made comments suggesting that the U.S. might not have all the gold it claims. “We don’t have the gold. Other places have the gold,” he said in an interview on WMUR television.

Despite his previous remarks, Trump has refrained from publicly addressing the audit request or offering any details about the state of U.S. gold reserves. This silence has only fueled further speculation about the potential implications of such an audit.

What if Gold Is Missing?

As calls for an audit grow louder, many are beginning to speculate about the potential consequences if discrepancies or missing gold were discovered. The U.S. currently holds approximately 4,600 tons of gold at Fort Knox, valued at around $430 billion. Some analysts argue that the discovery of any discrepancies would have little immediate impact on global markets due to the relatively small size of the gold reserves compared to global financial assets.

However, others believe that the implications could be far-reaching. Macro-economist Lyn Alden, for example, suggested that even if discrepancies were found, it might not have much of an effect on the markets. "Probably not much, actually. It’s such a small amount even as stated,” Alden wrote on X (formerly Twitter).

On the other hand, Bitcoin enthusiasts argue that a full audit of Fort Knox could trigger a catastrophic loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar, leading to a massive rally in Bitcoin (BTC). Such a scenario could potentially disrupt the global financial system. In this context, some even suggest that the public may never fully learn the results of the audit, further fueling calls for the establishment of a state-backed Bitcoin reserve.

Gold Prices and Economic Uncertainty

In the meantime, gold prices have been on the rise, hitting an all-time high above $2,940 per ounce last week. This surge has continued into 2025, with gold setting new records in inflation-adjusted terms. In light of growing global trade tensions and economic uncertainty, investment banks like Goldman Sachs have raised their year-end gold price targets to $3,100, emphasizing gold’s role as a hedge against market instability.

As the debate over Fort Knox’s gold reserves rages on, Polymarket’s prediction markets provide a glimpse into public sentiment and the potential outcomes of the much-discussed audit. Whether or not the audit takes place, the discussion has sparked renewed interest in the U.S. government’s financial transparency, the stability of the dollar, and the growing appeal of alternative assets like Bitcoin and gold.