Market Volatility Indicator Signals $135K Bitcoin Within 100 Days Amid “Risk-On” Rally
Bitcoin is holding strong above the $100,000 mark as favorable macroeconomic indicators and investor sentiment continue to point toward a bullish outlook. According to Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson, the cryptocurrency could climb to $135,000 within the next 100 days, driven by a “risk-on” environment.
CBOE Volatility Index chart. Source: X.com
Peterson’s forecast is underpinned by a sharp decline in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which recently fell to 20—its 30-year average—after spiking as high as 60 earlier in 2025. Historically, lower VIX levels have correlated with increased confidence in high-risk assets like Bitcoin, a trend Peterson’s model claims to predict with 95% accuracy.
The VIX decline follows a breakthrough U.S.-China trade deal announced on May 12, which included a 90-day pause on tariffs and a 115% reciprocal tariff reduction. This truce has reinvigorated global markets, further fueling demand for digital assets.
Adding to the bullish momentum, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-over-year inflation rate of 2.3% in April — the lowest since February 2021. The reading came in below expectations and marks a steady decline from 2.4% in March, bolstering investor hopes for potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve later in 2025.
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin is currently trading around $103,728 and consolidating its gains. The combination of easing inflation, declining volatility, and trade resolution is creating a fertile environment for digital asset growth.
Sentiment indicators confirm this bullish trend. CryptoQuant data shows the Bitcoin Bull Score Index surged from 20 to 80 in May — its highest point in 2025. Historically, such spikes have preceded major price rallies, especially when driven by post-halving demand and a limited BTC supply.
Meanwhile, the Bitco Bitcoin in Fear & Greed Index has climbed to 53.3%, indicating rising optimism, though it remains below the "overbought" threshold of 80. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. said the current reading suggests room for further gains and a possible test of Bitcoin’s all-time high, which hovers just below $110,000.
As investors rotate back into riskier assets, market conditions appear aligned for Bitcoin to continue its upward trajectory, with many watching closely for a breakout toward $135,000 in the weeks ahead.
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