Lyn Alden Lowers Bitcoin Forecast After Trump’s Tariff Move, Still Eyes $100K on Liquidity Surge

Prominent macroeconomist Lyn Alden has slightly tempered her bullish outlook for Bitcoin in 2025, citing the disruptive impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement earlier this year. Despite this adjustment, Alden remains confident that Bitcoin (BTC) will close the year higher than its current price of around $85,000 — potentially reclaiming the $100,000 mark if liquidity conditions align.

Speaking on the April 17 episode of Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell, Alden acknowledged that her original price projections were more aggressive before the U.S. trade policy shift.

“Before all this tariff kerfuffle, I would have had a higher price target,” Alden said. “My guess is that we end up higher at the end of the year than we are now, at least.”

Bitcoin Eyes $100K on “Massive Liquidity Unlock”

While cautious in the short term, Alden said Bitcoin could rally significantly if macroeconomic conditions trigger a wave of liquidity into the market. She pointed to scenarios like a breakdown in the U.S. bond market that could force the Federal Reserve to step in with accommodative policies such as quantitative easing (QE) or yield curve control — moves that historically correlate with Bitcoin surges.

Lyn Alden spoke to Coin Stories’ host Natalie Brunell on April 17. Source: Natalie Brunell

“A massive liquidity unlock could be the catalyst,” she explained, drawing parallels to periods of aggressive monetary intervention.

Alden emphasized that Bitcoin's unique structure — trading 24/7 — often amplifies volatility, especially when traditional financial markets are closed and macroeconomic uncertainty looms.

“If people are worried about how things are going to open on Monday, some pools of capital can sell their Bitcoin on a Sunday and prepare,” she noted. “Because it trades 24/7, that contributes to its volatile pricing — particularly when TradFi is freaking out.”

Parallels With 2003–2007 Could Benefit Bitcoin

Alden drew historical comparisons to the 2003–2007 period ahead of the global financial crisis, which she believes could provide a template for Bitcoin’s performance in the coming years. During that era, a weaker U.S. dollar and stable global liquidity fueled asset growth outside traditional U.S. equities — particularly in emerging markets, gold, and commodities.

“If we encounter a five-year period like that again, that could be a period where Bitcoin does pretty well, even as the U.S. stock market doesn’t do particularly well,” she said.

She also noted that Bitcoin can “disconnect” from traditional equities like the Nasdaq 100, especially during scenarios that reduce tech sector margins but leave global liquidity intact. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $84,950, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Bitcoin as a Liquidity Barometer

In previous research published in September, Alden labeled Bitcoin a “global liquidity barometer.” Her data showed that Bitcoin tracks the direction of global M2 money supply about 83% of the time in any given 12-month window — outperforming other major asset classes such as the S&P 500 (SPX), gold, and the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT) in terms of liquidity correlation.

Bitcoin is down 0.95% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap

The research further supports her thesis that Bitcoin responds most strongly to shifts in global monetary conditions, rather than solely equity market performance.

In Summary:

While geopolitical developments like tariffs may have trimmed the top-end of Lyn Alden’s Bitcoin forecast, she remains optimistic that the cryptocurrency could still surge toward six figures in 2025 — especially if monetary policy loosens again. With echoes of the pre-2008 cycle and increasing investor focus on global liquidity, Bitcoin may continue serving as both a hedge and a high-beta liquidity proxy in an evolving macro landscape.