Is the XRP Price Rally Over or Just Taking a Breather?

XRP has surged over 50% in the past month, rising from a local low of $1.80 to a recent peak of $2.65. This bullish move was fueled by renewed investor risk appetite and growing excitement over a potential “altseason.” However, technical indicators now suggest XRP may be facing short-term exhaustion — though its long-term prospects remain bullish.

Double Top Pattern Signals Potential Reversal

XRP recently formed a double top near $2.65, a classic bearish reversal pattern. The neckline of this formation lies around $2.47, and a decisive break below this level has already occurred, confirming the setup. If sellers remain in control, XRP could decline toward the $2.30 level and potentially lower. The failure to push above $2.65 reinforces the bearish narrative in the short term.

Rising Wedge Breakdown Targets $1.94

Adding to the downside pressure, XRP has broken down from a rising wedge pattern — another bearish signal. The wedge breakdown points to a potential 20% decline from current levels, targeting the $1.94 area. This zone aligns with significant support and leveraged long positions worth over $50 million. A drop below this range could trigger a long squeeze, further accelerating the sell-off.

On-Chain Metric Shows “Denial” Phase

XRP’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has entered the Belief–Denial zone, according to data from Glassnode. Historically, this zone has preceded major corrections, such as those in 2018 and 2021. The market’s current sentiment — expecting gains even as momentum wanes — mirrors past pre-crash behavior, hinting at increased downside risk.

Long-Term Outlook Remains Bullish

Despite short-term bearish signals, the long-term chart remains constructive. XRP is attempting to confirm a breakout from a multi-month falling wedge, which could drive prices to $3.69 by June — a 45% gain from current levels. Additional projections based on symmetrical triangle patterns and Fibonacci extensions suggest long-term targets of $5.24 and even $17.

If XRP maintains support above the 20-day and 50-day EMAs and stays above the wedge’s upper boundary, the bullish case remains intact. However, a drop below these levels could invalidate the breakout, opening the door to a retreat toward $1.75.