Is Bitcoin Headed for Another Crash? Price Struggles at $80K Amid Tariffs, Inflation Fears

Bitcoin Faces Renewed Crash Risk as Price Struggles to Hold $80K

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of weakness despite a brief rally to $83,565 on April 9, sparking concerns that the cryptocurrency could be heading for another major correction. After bouncing from a five-month low of $74,300, BTC failed to sustain momentum above the critical $83,000 level, casting doubt on the strength of its current trading range.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Geopolitical Risks Mount Amid Trump’s Tariff Pause

Market volatility intensified following U.S. President Donald Trump’s April 9 announcement of a 90-day pause on proposed tariff hikes, coupled with a sweeping 10% reciprocal tariff on most countries — with the exception of China, which saw its tariffs raised to a staggering 125%.

While the pause triggered a sharp market rally and helped push Bitcoin up over 7% to $82,000, analysts remain cautious. The temporary relief in trade tensions may be short-lived if negotiations with China fail. China’s retaliatory move, announcing 84% tariffs on U.S. imports effective April 10, underscores the risk of a deepening economic standoff.

“With China singled out so explicitly, market participants are bracing for Beijing's counterpunch,” crypto trading firm QCP Capital noted in a message to investors.

“Should retaliation materialize in force, the exuberant rally could quickly morph into a classic bull trap.”

Fed target rate probabilities for the May 7 FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

Inflation Fears and Rate Hike Risks Add Pressure

Beyond geopolitics, Bitcoin is also being pressured by macroeconomic concerns such as inflationary fears, a possible global slowdown, and a cautious Federal Reserve. BTC has increasingly mirrored the performance of tech stocks, showing vulnerability during periods of equity market weakness.

Earlier this year, when trade tension fears gripped markets, BTC shed nearly 10%, falling below $80,000. If the economic outlook deteriorates further or if central banks move to tighten monetary policy, analysts believe investors may exit risk assets like Bitcoin, accelerating downward pressure.

Traders are closely eyeing April 10 CPI data, which could influence expectations around future rate cuts. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there’s an 81.5% chance the Fed will hold rates steady at its May 7 meeting, with no cuts expected before June — potentially limiting Bitcoin’s upside.

Bitcoin: Technical levels to watch. Source: Glassnode

QCP Capital added that a soft inflation print would be "welcome," as it could help mitigate the inflationary overhang caused by Trump's blanket tariff policy.

Key Technical Levels: $80K or Bust?

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s failure to reclaim the 111-day moving average (MA) at $93,000 and the 200-day MA at $87,000 signals weakening momentum, according to on-chain data firm Glassnode.

BTC is now hovering near its 365-day MA at $76,000, a crucial support level. Losing this could trigger a broader sell-off, with downside targets at:

• $71,000 — the active realized price and key short-term support

• $65,000 — the true market mean, representing a major structural support level

“We now have confluence across several on-chain price models, highlighting the $65K to $71K price range as a critical area for the bulls to establish long-term support,” Glassnode said in its latest Week On-Chain report.

Analysts emphasize that holding above $80,000 in the coming days is crucial to avoid further downside. Reclaiming the short-term holder (STH) cost basis at $93,000 could be the first real sign of renewed bullish momentum.

Bitcoin: True market mean. Source: Glassnode

Bottom Line:

While Bitcoin remains above its immediate support, macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical escalation, and a technical breakdown below $80,000 could expose the market to another sharp correction — possibly revisiting the $71,000 zone or lower. Bulls must defend key levels in the coming weeks to prevent further losses.