How Low Can Bitcoin Go? Examining the Next Key Support Levels

Bitcoin (BTC) has taken a noticeable breather after its latest rally, dropping around 10% from its all-time highs over the past week. As BTC bulls fight to hold the $105,000 level, traders and analysts are closely watching where the next local bottom might form — and how much further Bitcoin could slide before finding firm support.

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Roman/X

Is Bitcoin’s Bull Market Nearing Its End?

While many market participants view the current pullback as a healthy consolidation phase before another move upward, some voices are sounding the alarm that this cycle may be approaching its peak.

Popular trader Roman pointed to the concept of diminishing returns over successive Bitcoin cycles. In a recent post, he highlighted that:

• This cycle has delivered ~600% gains,

• The previous cycle saw ~2,000% gains,

• And the one before that surged ~10,000%.

According to Roman, this sharp decrease in returns suggests that the current bull run could be nearing its exhaustion point. He also noted that the $105,000 area is a critical support zone — and warned that sideways price action could dominate once BTC retests that level.

BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass

Liquidity Data Points to Sub-$100,000 Risk

Order book data across exchanges shows immediate interest in the $103,000–$104,000 range. But below that, the path looks more fragile, with little standing in the way of a slide below the six-figure mark.

https://x.com/MarketWizard94/status/1928351908298715139

Analytics from CoinGlass show significant clusters of long liquidations in the $103,000 and $99,000 zones. As trading account TheKingfisher explained, these clusters represent where overleveraged long positions are at risk of getting wiped out — which could act as a temporary support but also trigger sharper declines if breached.

Bigger Picture: Major Support Levels Await Below

Zooming out to broader technical trends, three major support indicators are now in focus:

• The 111-day simple moving average (SMA) at ~$92,100,

• The 200-day SMA at ~$94,700,

• And the short-term holder cost basis (the average entry price for recent buyers) at ~$95,900.

These levels have historically acted as critical thresholds, marking the dividing line between bull and bear market phases. Despite the current correction, Bitcoin’s price remains well above all three, reflecting the strength of the rally that’s been building since April.

BTC/USD chart with 111-day, 200-day SMA, short-term holder cost basis. Source: Glassnode

However, these converging levels create a tight cluster of critical support — and analysts caution that holding above this zone will be crucial to sustain further upside momentum.

What’s Next for BTC?

While near-term volatility remains a concern, Bitcoin’s medium-term picture still shows resilience. Traders are watching whether the $105,000 level can hold through the week and if any breach of lower support zones triggers cascading liquidations.

If Bitcoin dips further, the ~$95,000–$94,000 area could be the decisive battleground, where technical and on-chain support converge. Holding above that could set the stage for the next rally — but slipping below may signal that the bull cycle’s best days are behind us.