Four Key Bitcoin Metrics Suggest $80K BTC Price Is a Discount

Despite recent volatility in the Bitcoin market, with its price dropping from $87,241 to $81,331 between March 28 and March 31, key metrics suggest that the current $80,000 range may actually present a discount for long-term investors. The recent 6.8% correction erased gains from the previous 17 days, driven in part by the declining momentum in the US stock market. This, coupled with a drop in the S&P 500 futures to their lowest levels since March 14, triggered a $230 million liquidation in bullish BTC futures positions.

While Bitcoin's price has struggled to hold above $82,000 as of March 31, four critical indicators signal strong investor confidence and suggest that Bitcoin could be decoupling from traditional financial markets in the near future. This comes amid concerns about the global trade war's impact on economic growth and a host of macroeconomic factors. Notably, the March 26 announcement of a 25% US tariff on foreign-made vehicles has heightened investor risk aversion. The economic outlook is further clouded by recent adjustments from major investment banks. Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end S&P 500 target for the second time, reducing it from 6,200 to 5,700, while Barclays followed suit, revising its forecast from 6,600 to 5,900.

S&P 500 index futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView 

These concerns over the global economic slowdown have coincided with a surge in gold prices, which reached a record high above $3,100 on March 31. The precious metal is often seen as the ultimate hedge in times of economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, the US dollar has weakened against a basket of foreign currencies, with the DXY index falling from 107.60 in February to 104.10 by March’s end. In this environment, Bitcoin continues to show resilience, and several key metrics provide a strong case for its long-term potential.

Key Metrics Indicate Strength Amidst Volatility

Despite the current market correction, Bitcoin's metrics reveal underlying strength, with long-term investors showing little concern about short-term price fluctuations. Over the past six months, Bitcoin has gained 36%, while the S&P 500 index has dropped 3.5% during the same period. This shows that Bitcoin is continuing to grow as an alternative asset, even as traditional markets face challenges.

One of the most significant indicators of Bitcoin’s strength is its mining hashrate, which measures the computing power securing the network. On March 28, Bitcoin’s 7-day hashrate reached an all-time high of 856.2 million terahashes per second, up from 798.8 million in February. This surge in hashrate suggests that miners are not panicking, despite market fluctuations, and are continuing to invest in the network's security. Additionally, data from Glassnode reveals that the net transfers from miners to exchanges remained relatively low, with only 125 BTC moved to exchanges on March 30, significantly lower than the 450 BTC mined per day. This indicates that miners are holding on to their Bitcoin, rather than liquidating it.

Bitcoin mining estimated 7-day average hashrate, TH/s. Source: Blockchain.com

Corporate Adoption Continues to Grow

Corporate adoption of Bitcoin is also on the rise, further supporting the notion that Bitcoin is more than just a speculative asset. On March 28, Bitcoin miner Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) filed a prospectus to sell up to $2 billion in stock to expand its BTC reserves. This follows similar moves by companies like GameStop, which filed a $1.3 billion convertible debt offering on March 26 to update its reserve strategy to include Bitcoin and stablecoin acquisitions.

Such corporate interest in Bitcoin further reinforces its role as a long-term asset. Large companies accumulating Bitcoin for their balance sheets signal a strong vote of confidence in the cryptocurrency, suggesting that its current price may be an attractive entry point.

Exchange Reserves Reach Six-Year Lows

Another key indicator of Bitcoin’s potential upside is the drop in reserves held on cryptocurrency exchanges. According to Glassnode, Bitcoin reserves across exchanges fell to their lowest levels in over six years on March 30, reaching just 2.64 million BTC. A reduction in the number of coins available for immediate trading typically suggests that investors are less inclined to sell and are instead holding onto their assets for the long term. This trend is particularly notable given Bitcoin's recent 5.1% price decline over the past week.

The reduction in exchange reserves reflects growing confidence among investors, who are more focused on holding and accumulating Bitcoin than on short-term trading. This is a clear sign that the market is shifting toward long-term holders who view Bitcoin as a hedge against economic uncertainty rather than a quick-profit vehicle.

Bitcoin 7-day average net transfer volume from/to miners, BTC. Source: Glassnode

Institutional Confidence in Bitcoin ETFs

Lastly, Bitcoin’s institutional appeal is underscored by the near-zero net outflows observed in US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) between March 27 and March 28. This stability in institutional holdings further demonstrates confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value. Despite short-term price fluctuations, institutional investors continue to place their trust in Bitcoin, signaling strong belief in its future potential.

Conclusion

The combination of a record-high mining hashrate, growing corporate adoption, declining exchange reserves, and continued institutional confidence makes a compelling case that Bitcoin's current price is a discount. Even as global economic uncertainties and stock market volatility weigh on investor sentiment, Bitcoin's fundamentals remain robust, indicating that cryptocurrency's price could see significant upward momentum in the near future. For long-term investors, the $80K Bitcoin price could very well represent an attractive entry point, with several key metrics suggesting that the digital asset is undervalued relative to its potential.