Can Bitcoin Price Drop to $50,000? Analysts Warn of Further Downside Risk

Bitcoin's price took a sharp hit over the weekend, falling to a four-month low of $74,500 on April 7, sparking widespread concern among investors. As global equity markets suffered a $9.5 trillion wipeout following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a global tariff plan, Bitcoin and other risk assets took a hit. The growing fear of a US recession has spooked investors, leaving the cryptocurrency market on edge and prompting many to question just how much lower Bitcoin’s price can go.

BTC/USD vs. TOTAL crypto market cap, S&P 500, and MSCI World index one-year performance. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin's Technical Struggles: Testing Key Levels

Currently, Bitcoin is grappling with a critical technical level: the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA). This level has historically served as a dividing line between bull and bear markets. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim this support, which currently sits around $77,500, analysts fear that the cryptocurrency could face a deeper correction.

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView/Ted Pillows

According to market analyst Ted Pillows, should Bitcoin fail to close above the 50-week EMA, the next logical support zone could be in the $69,000–$70,000 range, aligning with the highs from the 2021 bull market. There’s also a possibility of a further drop to $67,000, which corresponds to the average entry price of Michael Saylor, the CEO of MicroStrategy and a well-known Bitcoin proponent.

Support Levels and the ‘Max Pain’ Zone

Bitcoin has found some short-term support around $74,000, a level associated with a notable cluster of cost-basis for investors holding over 50,000 BTC. Data from Glassnode’s UTXO realized price distribution (URPD) heatmap shows that this is the first major cluster below $80,000, and it may act as a buffer zone against further price declines.

Bitcoin URPD heatmap. Source: Glassnode 

However, Glassnode’s Short-Term Holder (STH) realized price bands suggest that the average short-term holder's cost basis is at $89,000, with a significant -1 standard deviation band at $69,000. This level has historically been a “max pain” zone during previous market pullbacks, where weak hands capitulate and long-term investors step in. Therefore, the $69,000 level is seen as a critical floor for Bitcoin, where the market could find solid support.

The Bearish Scenario: Bitcoin at $50,000?

Looking at the broader historical context, there is a possibility that Bitcoin may enter a prolonged bear market if it decisively breaks below the 50-week EMA. In previous cycles, such breakdowns have led Bitcoin toward the 200-week EMA, a support zone historically seen as a final stop during major market corrections. If this fractal pattern plays out, Bitcoin could be on track for a significant drop toward $50,000, which aligns with the current position of the 200-week EMA.

Bitcoin STH onchain cost basis bands. Source: Glassnode

While Bitcoin has shown resilience in the past, the current market conditions and the failure to hold key technical levels have left analysts wary. For those watching the market, the coming days will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can stabilize or whether further declines are inevitable.

In the coming weeks, investors will be keeping a close eye on Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim the 50-week EMA and whether the market can absorb further downside pressure without falling into a deeper bear market. If the $69,000–$70,000 region breaks, the $50,000 price target could quickly come into play as the next major support level.