Can 3-Month Bitcoin RSI Highs Counter Bearish BTC Price 'Seasonality'?

Bitcoin RSI Signals a Breakout—But Can It Overcome Bearish April Seasonality?

Bitcoin (BTC) is flashing bullish signals on technical charts, but the cryptocurrency still faces strong headwinds from macroeconomic challenges and seasonal price trends. At around $85,547, BTC’s price is grappling with resistance, even as its relative strength index (RSI) hits levels last seen in January.

Bullish Divergence Forms as RSI Hits Multimonth Highs

On daily timeframes, RSI—a momentum indicator used to gauge potential trend reversals—is beginning to diverge positively from price. As Bitcoin posted lower lows throughout the past month, RSI trended in the opposite direction, forming higher lows, suggesting bullish divergence.

BTC/USD 1-day chart with RSI data. Source: TradingView

More notably, RSI recently broke above the key 50-level midpoint and retested it as support before climbing to new multimonth highs. According to popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital, this signals growing strength in BTC’s momentum:

“Bitcoin has successfully retested red as support & the Daily RSI Higher Low continues to maintain itself… Growing signs of a maturing Bullish Divergence here,” he noted in a recent post on X.

He also pointed out that these RSI trends suggest a strong long-term price floor for Bitcoin, currently sitting around the $70,000 mark.

Weekly RSI Breakout Close to Confirmation

The bullish RSI narrative is not limited to the daily chart. Analyst Kevin Svenson highlighted a weekly RSI breakout pattern, which he described as one of the most reliable long-term indicators of major Bitcoin rallies:

“Once confirmed, weekly RSI breakout signals have proven to be among the most reliable macro breakout indicators… 6 days until full confirmation,” Svenson shared on X.

Alongside RSI strength, market observers are also closely watching a key downward-sloping trendline from January’s all-time highs. A breakout above this resistance could further validate a bullish move.

BTC/USD 1-day chart with RSI data. Source: Rekt Capital/X

April Price Performance Still Disappoints

Despite the technical optimism, April is proving to be a tough month for Bitcoin price performance. According to network economist Timothy Peterson, BTC is underperforming compared to its historical median yearly price path.

“Half the days are above the blue line and half are below it. This April is obviously a 'below' month,” Peterson wrote, noting that high interest rates and broader economic uncertainty are limiting upside momentum.

Macroeconomic stressors—including persistent inflation, an ongoing U.S. trade war, and a broad risk-off environment—are adding pressure on Bitcoin. While the U.S. stock market has faltered, gold has rallied to repeated all-time highs, indicating that investors are currently favoring traditional safe havens over speculative assets like crypto.

BTC/USD 1-week chart with RSI data. Source: Kevin Svenson/X

Is the Bullish Underpinning Strong Enough?

While short-term seasonal patterns and economic headwinds weigh on Bitcoin, some analysts are betting on broader forces to reignite bullish momentum. These include the record global M2 money supply and a weakening U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)—factors historically correlated with Bitcoin price surges.

So, can RSI breakouts and bullish divergence outweigh April’s bearish seasonality and economic challenges? While the charts are setting the stage for a rebound, confirmation over the next few days could be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin will sustain a breakout—or fall back under pressure.

BTC price seasonality. Source: Timothy Peterson/X

Bottom Line:

Bitcoin’s RSI patterns are painting a familiar pre-bull run picture, but macroeconomic realities and seasonal sluggishness could delay the next leg up. All eyes are now on whether the coming days will confirm a breakout or reinforce resistance.