Bitcoin Volatility Falls Below Nvidia in 2025 as Institutional Adoption Grows: Bitwise

Bitcoin Shows Signs of Maturing as Volatility Declines

Bitcoin’s price behavior in 2025 has become less volatile than shares of Nvidia, a notable shift that underscores the cryptocurrency’s evolving investor base and growing institutional adoption, according to digital asset manager Bitwise.

In a statement released Wednesday, Bitwise said it expects Bitcoin’s volatility to remain lower than Nvidia’s through 2026, continuing a decade-long trend of declining price swings as the asset matures.

“Bitcoin’s volatility has steadily declined over the past ten years,” Bitwise noted, pointing to the diversification of Bitcoin holders and the growing role of traditional investment vehicles such as spot ETFs.

Institutional Capital Is Changing Bitcoin’s Market Structure

Bitwise attributed the reduced volatility to a structural shift in Bitcoin ownership. The introduction of regulated investment products, particularly spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, has drawn long-term capital from pensions, asset managers, and wealth platforms.

According to the firm, this transition reflects a broader “derisking” of Bitcoin as an investment asset.

“This shift reflects the fundamental derisking of Bitcoin and the diversification of its investor base thanks to traditional investment vehicles like ETFs.”

As a result, Bitcoin is increasingly behaving less like a speculative trade and more like a macro asset influenced by long-term allocation strategies.

Nvidia Outpaces Bitcoin in 2025 Volatility

While Bitcoin has historically been associated with sharp price swings, 2025 data paints a different picture.

• Bitcoin’s price range in 2025:

From a low near $75,000 in April to an all-time high of $126,000 in early October, representing a 68% move.

• Nvidia’s price range in 2025:

From approximately $94 in early April to $207 in late October, a 120% swing.

Bitwise highlighted this comparison in a post on X, emphasizing that Nvidia’s equity volatility now exceeds that of Bitcoin.

Source: Bitwise on X

Despite higher volatility, Nvidia shares have outperformed Bitcoin on a year-to-date basis, rising 27%, while Bitcoin is down roughly 8% amid a broader decoupling between crypto and equity markets.

Bitwise Forecasts New Bitcoin All-Time High

Looking ahead, Bitwise remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term outlook. The firm expects:

• A new Bitcoin all-time high in the next market cycle

• A weakening of the traditional four-year crypto cycle

• Increased participation from major financial institutions, including Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch

• Continued growth in spot crypto ETF allocations

• Accelerated onchain development activity

Bitwise also expects regulatory clarity to further reduce friction for corporate and institutional crypto adoption.

Crypto Equities May Outperform Tech Stocks

In addition to Bitcoin, Bitwise predicted that crypto-related equities could outperform traditional technology stocks in the coming years.

While major tech stocks have gained roughly 140% over the past three years, Bitwise said crypto equities are already exceeding that pace, driven by leverage to blockchain infrastructure, exchanges, and mining operations.

Conclusion: Bitcoin’s Risk Profile Is Shifting

Bitcoin’s lower volatility compared to Nvidia in 2025 marks a significant milestone in its evolution from a speculative asset to a more institutionally anchored investment. As ETFs, regulatory clarity, and long-term capital continue to reshape the market, Bitcoin’s price behavior increasingly resembles that of established macro assets rather than high-beta tech stocks.

If Bitwise’s projections hold, Bitcoin’s next growth phase may be defined less by extreme volatility — and more by sustained adoption and structural demand.

See all our insights: Bitcoin World News