Bitcoin Trades at ‘40% Discount’ Amid $3B Institutional Buying Surge

Bitcoin is showing fresh signs of strength, fueled by sharp institutional demand and historically undervalued pricing. Recent data reveals that BTC is trading at a 40% discount to its intrinsic value, even as spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed a $3 billion inflow over just a few days.

Bitcoin

BTC

$94,053

has rallied strongly in April, and with on-chain data highlighting record-breaking exchange outflows, the bullish case continues to build for a move toward $100,000 and beyond.

Bitcoin’s Energy Value Implies 40% Discount

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, pointed out on X that Bitcoin’s energy value — a model based on mining costs and energy input — now estimates Bitcoin’s fair value at around $130,000.

Given Bitcoin’s current market price, this suggests that BTC is trading approximately 40% below its intrinsic worth, offering a rare “value opportunity” according to Edwards.

The sharp re-pricing comes in the wake of Bitcoin’s April 2024 halving, where block rewards dropped to 3.125 BTC, tightening new supply and increasing production costs.

Institutional Demand Rockets With Massive Exchange Outflows

Supporting this bullish outlook, data from CryptoQuant shows that over 8,756 BTC — valued at $830 million — were withdrawn from Coinbase on April 24.

Such large-scale outflows are often associated with institutional accumulation, particularly tied to spot Bitcoin ETF flows.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas described the buying spree as institutions going on a ”$3 billion Bitcoin bender” in just a few days.

Binance also saw significant action, with 27,750 BTC withdrawn on April 25 — marking the third-largest Bitcoin outflow in the exchange’s history.

Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, noted that while large outflows are generally bullish, they don’t guarantee immediate rallies. In 2021, for example, huge outflows didn’t prevent a correction triggered by China’s crypto ban.

However, consistent multi-day outflows — such as those seen after the FTX collapse — have historically signaled market bottoms and the beginning of recovery phases.

Can Bitcoin’s Fractal Pattern Send BTC Above $100K?

Beyond fundamental flows, Bitcoin’s current price action is showing intriguing similarities to its behavior in Q4 2024.

As shown in the 1-day chart, BTC is consolidating in a higher range post-breakout — a structure very similar to its rally from November 2024.

Back then, Bitcoin surged 13% between Nov. 5–9, followed by another 15% rally over Nov. 10–11, eventually pushing BTC into price discovery mode.

Currently, Bitcoin has risen 11% between April 21–25, while RSI (Relative Strength Index) levels indicate similar bullish pressure.

If the pattern repeats, analysts suggest a further 7–10% upside could be imminent, potentially propelling Bitcoin above $100,000.

However, differences exist. Unlike Q4 2024 — when Bitcoin had no significant overhead resistance — today’s $96,100 level could present a formidable hurdle to a clean breakout.

Despite this, with institutional inflows soaring, supply tightening, and fractal patterns hinting at further gains, the next major move could soon arrive.