Bitcoin Traders Adjust Expectations Following SBR Uncertainty, Analyst Says

Bitcoin traders are scaling back their short-term bullish outlook, as uncertainty surrounding the potential creation of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (SBR) has left the market with limited upside, according to crypto analyst Nick Forster.

Forster, the founder of the on-chain options protocol Derive, explained in a January 25 analyst note that the lack of concrete actions regarding the U.S. government's digital asset strategy has dampened trader enthusiasm. Instead of a specific Bitcoin reserve, traders had hoped for more definitive steps, particularly after U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent executive order to create a working group focused on digital asset markets.

Lack of Clear Actions Dampens Market Sentiment

Forster pointed out that Bitcoin options traders are signaling a more cautious approach. According to data from Derive, a staggering 83.3% of Bitcoin options contracts on January 24 were “calls sold” — meaning traders were betting that Bitcoin’s price would either remain flat or decline. This reflects a lack of confidence in the asset's short-term upward momentum.

“Without real, actionable steps, like the creation of a national reserve, the market isn’t buying in,” Forster stated. He highlighted that the market was expecting more than just vague promises and speculative plans, noting that the absence of a specific Bitcoin-focused reserve has cooled bullish expectations.

Executive Order and Bitcoin Community Reaction

The uncertainty surrounding the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve stems from President Trump’s January 23 executive order, which established a working group to evaluate the creation of a “strategic national digital assets stockpile.” The goal is to ensure U.S. leadership in the crypto space, but the order did not explicitly mention Bitcoin or any firm timeline for establishing such a reserve.

The executive order has sparked mixed reactions within the cryptocurrency community. While some, including Ripple, have supported the idea of a multi-coin strategic reserve, many Bitcoin enthusiasts were disappointed that the focus is not solely on Bitcoin. Forster emphasized that the lack of clarity and specific action has left traders skeptical, with hype alone no longer being enough to drive sustained price growth.

Short-Term Price Performance and Market Sentiment

At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $105,100, about 3.8% below its most recent all-time high of just over $109,000. The current price stagnation suggests that the market’s optimism about Bitcoin’s future potential may have temporarily cooled.

Longtime trader and analyst Filbfilb told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin’s price isn’t currently near the $100,000 level because traders were initially expecting the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve to materialize more quickly. He noted, however, that there’s still potential for significant price growth in the medium to long term. Filbfilb believes Bitcoin could reach $180,000 by 2025, a target he had set as early as 2023.

Conclusion

The Bitcoin market's short-term outlook has been tempered by the lack of specific action regarding the U.S. government’s digital asset strategy. While the creation of a national digital assets stockpile could eventually lead to positive developments for Bitcoin, the current uncertainty has led traders to dial back their expectations. Until concrete steps are taken, the market signals a more cautious stance, with limited short-term upside.