Bitcoin Still on Track for $1.8M by 2035, Says Analyst

Bitcoin Still on Track for $1.8M in 2035, Says Analyst

Despite short-term volatility and a dip in investor enthusiasm, Bitcoin is still on a path to reach $1.8 million per BTC by 2035, according to Joe Burnett, director of market research at Unchained.

Speaking during a recent live show on X, Burnett said that Bitcoin remains in a strong long-term bullish cycle and is on track to rival or surpass gold’s market capitalization over the next ten years.

“When I think about where Bitcoin will be in 10 years, there are two models I admire,” Burnett said. “One is the parallel model, which suggests that Bitcoin will be about $1.8 million in 2035. The other is Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin 24 model, which suggests a price of $2.1 million.”

Burnett emphasized that both projections represent strong base cases, though he believes macroeconomic shifts could push Bitcoin even higher over time.

Bitcoin vs. Gold: Heading Toward Digital Parity

Burnett likened Bitcoin’s potential trajectory to the transformation of the transportation industry, suggesting that Bitcoin's superior technology could help it overtake gold in value and utility.

“The gold market is an estimated $21 trillion. If Bitcoin simply reaches gold parity, it would be worth $1 million per coin today.

Top tokenized gold assets, trading volume. Source: CoinGecko, Cex.io

Even as gold and tokenized gold currently benefit from heightened geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin is viewed by many as the long-term winner due to its decentralized design, scarcity, and portability.

Global Trade Tensions Shake Markets

Since President Donald Trump’s return to office on January 20, 2025, global markets have experienced renewed uncertainty. His administration's threats of sweeping import tariffs have intensified fears of a global trade war, hurting risk assets — including Bitcoin.

Amid these concerns, capital has rotated toward more traditional safe havens. Tokenized gold, for example, recently saw trading volumes top $1 billion, marking a two-year high and underscoring investors’ growing caution.

Bitcoin’s Maturity Is Growing

Despite short-term losses — Bitcoin has fallen over 10% year-to-date — its overall volatility has been declining, reflecting its evolution as a more mature asset class.

Burnett noted that deep bear markets serve an important purpose: they transfer Bitcoin into the hands of committed long-term holders.

“The highs bring attention, and the deep, dark bear markets move coins into the hands of the strongest, most convicted holders, as fast as possible.”

The Short-Term Picture: Caution Before Clarity

While some analysts remain optimistic — such as Arthur Hayes, who predicts Bitcoin could hit $250,000 by the end of 2025 if the Federal Reserve returns to quantitative easing — many investors are currently taking a more cautious approach.

Enmanuel Cardozo, a market analyst at the real-world asset tokenization platform Brickken, explained that investors are reducing exposure to volatile assets like Bitcoin until there is more certainty around global trade policy.

“With money flowing out of Bitcoin ETFs, investors are looking for safer spots to hold their cash right now. Gold’s a traditional vehicle in these cases and a go-to when markets are uncertain,” Cardozo said.

Since the start of 2025, gold has gained more than 23%, easily outpacing Bitcoin's performance in the same period

BTC, gold, year-to-date chart. Source: TradingView

Looking Ahead: A Decade of Growth Potential

Even amid cautious sentiment and near-term turbulence, Bitcoin’s decade-long outlook remains compelling. As institutional adoption expands, regulatory clarity improves, and the effects of the 2024 halving continue to play out, Bitcoin could be positioned for exponential growth.

If Bitcoin does reach or exceed gold's $21 trillion market cap, today's volatility will be seen as a small bump on a long and historic road.

“Bitcoin is still on track,” Burnett said. “The story isn’t over — it’s just getting started.”