Bitcoin Faces Sideways Pressure in ‘Moonvember’ as Macro Uncertainty Clouds Outlook

No ‘Moonvember’? Analysts See Bitcoin Stalling Amid Macro Headwinds

Bitcoin’s long-standing trend of strong November rallies may be broken this year, with leading crypto analysts warning that macroeconomic uncertainty could keep BTC trading sideways instead of surging.

In a recent market report, Bitfinex analysts said that the current global environment points to a consolidation phase rather than a breakout.

“The current macro backdrop — easing policy but mixed communication from the Fed — supports consolidation as a necessary stabilizing phase before volatility can expand again,” the analysts explained.

They also noted that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had “hinted at uncertainty” regarding whether the Fed will move forward with another 25-basis-point rate cut at its December meeting.

Rate Cut Odds Drop Below 70%

Expectations for a rate cut have weakened in recent weeks. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in a 67.9% probability of a rate cut at the Dec. 10 Federal Reserve meeting, down from roughly 90% earlier this quarter.

Historically, lower interest rates have been bullish for crypto, as investors tend to move funds away from low-yield traditional assets like bonds and term deposits in favor of higher-risk opportunities such as Bitcoin.

However, if the Fed signals a pause or reversal in its easing cycle, it could trigger renewed caution among crypto traders.

Bitcoin Loses Momentum Below $116K

Bitcoin’s price has struggled to maintain upward momentum. As of publication, BTC trades near $103,000, down 3% in the past 24 hours and 11% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.

Bitfinex analysts warned that bullish sentiment could fade further if Bitcoin fails to climb back above the $116,000 resistance zone.

“Optimists are showing signs of waning conviction,” the report noted, citing increased selling from long-term holders.

“Unless the price recovers decisively above this range, time becomes a growing headwind for bulls.”

The current slowdown follows Bitcoin’s October crash, which erased roughly $19 billion in leveraged crypto positions shortly after BTC hit an all-time high of $125,100.

History Says November Is Usually Bullish

Not all market watchers share Bitfinex’s cautious tone. Historical data shows that November has been Bitcoin’s strongest month.

Since 2013, BTC has averaged a 41.78% gain in November, according to CoinGlass, leading many traders to believe that history could still repeat itself.

Crypto trader Dave Weisberger remains confident in Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals:

“Context is very constructive relative to previous cycles, and we are at the bottom, not the top, of the range compared to other financial assets,” Weisberger said.

Similarly, prominent analysts such as Carl Runefelt and AshCrypto have publicly reiterated their bullish stance on X (formerly Twitter).

Runefelt declared that “November will turn green again for Bitcoin soon,” while AshCrypto told followers he remains “still bullish” despite recent volatility.

Market Outlook: A Month of Patience or Opportunity?

While technical indicators and macro conditions suggest a period of consolidation, long-term sentiment around Bitcoin remains largely positive. If the Fed reaffirms its easing stance or if inflows into digital assets accelerate, BTC could still recover sharply before year-end.

For now, though, analysts suggest traders brace for a quieter November — one that tests patience more than promises profits.

Conclusion

Despite Bitcoin’s strong historical record in November, macroeconomic crosswinds and Fed uncertainty are dampening short-term optimism. While some traders still anticipate a late-month rebound, most analysts agree that a period of consolidation could set the stage for renewed volatility heading into December

See all our insights: Bitcoin World News