Bitcoin Shifts from Tech to Safe Haven: Now Trading More Like Gold Amid Recession Fears

Bitcoin Acts ‘Less Nasdaq, More Gold’ as Safe-Haven Narrative Strengthens

Bitcoin is starting to trade more like gold than a tech stock, according to industry analysts, as it shows increased resilience amid mounting global economic uncertainty. In the wake of intensifying U.S.–China trade tensions and growing recession risks, the world’s largest cryptocurrency appears to be evolving into a legitimate safe-haven asset.

Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin (BTC) has gained 12%, climbing to $88,552 as of April 22 — even as the broader markets wobbled under geopolitical pressure and recession forecasts.

Bitcoin Decouples from Stocks, Mirrors Gold

According to Alex Svanevik, CEO of blockchain intelligence platform Nansen, Bitcoin is “acting less like the Nasdaq and more like gold.” In comments made on April 21, Svanevik noted that Bitcoin’s recent price action reflects a maturing global asset with broader utility beyond speculative investing.

Source: Alex Svanevik

“Bitcoin was surprisingly resilient amid the trade war,” Svanevik said. “It outperformed both altcoins and equity indexes like the S&P 500, which saw sharp pullbacks.”

He added that, while Bitcoin remains exposed to macroeconomic risks like a potential U.S. recession, it’s increasingly benefiting from geopolitical and regulatory tailwinds.

Trade War Escalation Adds Fuel to BTC’s Ascent

Bitcoin’s strength comes as the U.S. and China ramp up reciprocal tariffs. On April 9, the U.S. hiked its tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, prompting China to respond with identical increases on April 12. While such tensions rattled traditional markets, Bitcoin remained largely unaffected, suggesting an emerging role as a hedge against trade instability.

Gold, traditionally the go-to safe-haven asset, also gained during the same period, and Svanevik cautioned that it may still remain more resilient than Bitcoin during market panics. “Investors might still sell gold to cover margin calls, which we saw briefly during the worst of the trade tensions,” he explained.

U.S. Bitcoin Reserves and Treasury Strategy

Bitcoin’s rising institutional credibility is further supported by recent U.S. policy developments, particularly the creation of a U.S. Bitcoin reserve. While the initial holdings will come from BTC seized in criminal cases, President Donald Trump’s latest executive order encourages the Treasury to explore "budget-neutral strategies" to acquire more Bitcoin.

According to Bo Hines, a member of the Presidential Council of Advisers for Digital Assets, the government is examining creative funding sources, including tariff revenues and revaluation of Treasury gold certificates, to build Bitcoin reserves without selling its existing gold stockpile.

“These measures could signal a strategic shift in how the U.S. views Bitcoin — not just as an asset, but as part of a broader fiscal and monetary toolkit,” Hines said during an April 14 interview.

Global Recession Outlook. Source: JPMorgan Global Economics

JPMorgan: U.S. Recession Odds at 60%

Despite Bitcoin’s bullish narrative, macroeconomic clouds are gathering. JPMorgan raised its U.S. recession odds for 2025 from 40% to 60%, according to a research note published on April 15. The bank cited the lingering effects of the trade war and the universal 10% tariff as significant threats to global growth.

“The latest rollback of Liberation Day tariffs mitigates some of the shock, but the 145% tariff on Chinese imports remains a major headwind,” the report stated.

JPMorgan also projected that the Federal Reserve would begin cutting interest rates in September 2025, continuing through to January 2026, potentially lowering the policy rate to 3% by mid-2026. Such easing could provide additional tailwinds for Bitcoin as liquidity expands and real yields decline.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s recent behavior suggests a growing shift in market perception — from a speculative tech asset to a digital alternative to gold. As recession fears mount and the U.S. government begins exploring Bitcoin-backed fiscal strategies, the crypto market may be entering a new era of maturity and macro relevance.