Bitcoin Set to Rebound Toward $90,000, Analyst Suggests, as Trump Softens on Tariffs and Fed Holds Firm

Bitcoin could be poised for a recovery, potentially heading toward the $90,000 mark, following recent developments in global economic policy. According to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, Bitcoin appears to have reached its bottom, supported by US President Donald Trump’s signal to ease tariffs and the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold firm on inflation concerns last week.

Factors Driving Bitcoin's Potential Rebound

Thielen points to two significant factors contributing to Bitcoin's potential upside: Trump's shift on tariff policy and the Federal Reserve's stance on inflation. In a March 23 report, Thielen explained that Trump's recent comments regarding "flexibility" on reciprocal tariffs, set to take effect on April 2, marked a shift in his previous rhetoric, providing optimism for financial markets, including Bitcoin.

Furthermore, the Federal Reserve's March 18-19 meeting signals a more dovish stance, with officials indicating they would “look past short-term inflationary pressures,” laying the groundwork for possible future easing. This position from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell supports a more favorable environment for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

“Powell’s mildly dovish tone suggests that the Fed's 'put' remains intact, providing further support for a recovery in stock prices,” Thielen said. This optimism has translated into a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, which has recently shown signs of bottoming out.

Technical Indicators Point to Bullish Momentum

According to Thielen, Bitcoin’s 21-day moving average has recently reset, sitting at $85,200, indicating a shift in the technical landscape. 10x Research’s Bitcoin reversal indicators are now turning bullish, suggesting that Bitcoin could be setting up for a fresh uptrend.

"These weekly reversal indicators have pulled back to levels where past bull markets have resumed," Thielen added. He referenced previous instances where similar technical conditions were met—such as in September 2023 when the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) narrative gained traction and in August 2024, ahead of the US presidential election. Given the current technical setup, Thielen believes the conditions are ripe for a renewed uptrend.

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $85,720, having gained 2.1% in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data. The positive momentum is being echoed across the crypto market, with major altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH), Tron (TRX), and Avalanche (AVAX) showing strong rebounds of 4.3%, 6.4%, and 8.9%, respectively, over the past week.

Resistance at $90,000

Despite the positive outlook, Thielen cautioned that Bitcoin may face "significant resistance" if it approaches the $90,000 level. While he believes Bitcoin has reached its bottom, he doesn't foresee an immediate, parabolic rally. Instead, he suggests that the market will need more time to build sustainable momentum.

“No clear catalyst exists for an immediate parabolic rally,” Thielen said, adding that the $90,000 mark may prove challenging to breach without more favorable macroeconomic conditions.

Bitcoin ETFs and Long-Term Investor Sentiment

Thielen’s analysis also highlighted the continued positive sentiment from long-term Bitcoin holders. He noted that the largest group of Bitcoin holders, those with between 100 and 1,000 BTC, are typically family offices and wealth managers who are invested in the digital asset for the long haul. This group is unlikely to be swayed by short-term volatility, suggesting a strong base of support for Bitcoin’s price.

In addition, the recent inflow of capital into US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs signals that institutional interest in Bitcoin remains robust. This marks the first inflow since late January, further bolstering the case for Bitcoin’s potential rebound. Thielen believes that Bitcoin ETF selling from arbitrage-focused investors will likely taper off, as the arbitrage opportunities have been largely exhausted.

Outlook for Bitcoin

While the immediate future for Bitcoin remains uncertain, Thielen's analysis suggests that Bitcoin has bottomed out and may be gearing up for a rebound toward $90,000. However, significant resistance is expected at that level, and the market may need additional catalysts to trigger a parabolic rally. As Bitcoin continues to hold strong above $80,000, long-term investors, including institutional players and wealth managers, are likely to remain key supporters of the digital asset.

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