Bitcoin’s Wide Price Range to Persist, No Longer Just a ‘Long-Only’ Bet: Analyst

Bitcoin’s Wide Price Range to Persist, No Longer Just a ‘Long-Only’ Bet: Analyst

Bitcoin may not be headed for a breakout as quickly as many in the crypto space hope, according to Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research. In a new report released April 14, Thielen argued that Bitcoin’s current rally lacks speculative fervor and is increasingly shaped by long-term, institutional-style investors rather than “crypto-bro” momentum.

While optimism continues to circulate among analysts who expect new all-time highs by June, Thielen suggests Bitcoin could instead remain within a broad consolidation range, as short-term indicators point to a cooling market.

Market Momentum Signals a Potential Top

One key metric driving Thielen’s caution is the Bitcoin stochastic oscillator, which analyzes price momentum to determine whether an asset is overbought or oversold. Current patterns in the oscillator are more indicative of a market top or late-stage cycle, Thielen noted.

“Short-term signals are not aligning with longer-term indicators, highlighting the disconnect in the market outlook,” he said.

As a result, Thielen believes Bitcoin’s recent price action does not mark the beginning of a new bull run. Instead, he sees the market transitioning into a more mature and sophisticated phase, requiring financial strategies beyond simple long-only positions.

“Bitcoin is no longer a parabolic ‘Long-Only’ retail-driven market. It demands a more sophisticated, finance-oriented approach,” Thielen added.

Bitcoin’s New Investor Profile

Thielen explained that Bitcoin’s rally over the past year — with the asset gaining 32.8% year-over-year — has been powered less by speculative trading and more by long-term holders and institutional participants adopting a buy-and-hold strategy for diversification.

Bitcoin is trading at $83,810 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCap

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $83,810, according to CoinMarketCap.

Consolidation Could Continue

Despite some cautious optimism, Thielen maintains that Bitcoin could trade within a broad range of $73,000 to $94,000, mirroring the consolidation phase seen in early 2024.

“We view Bitcoin as trading within a broad range, with a slight upward bias,” he said.

Earlier in March 2024, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $73,679, before entering a prolonged sideways trend. A similar pattern may repeat in the coming months, Thielen suggested, as macroeconomic and political factors — such as U.S. trade policy and interest rates — continue to weigh on sentiment.

Other Analysts Still Bullish on June

While Thielen urges caution, others remain upbeat. Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten recently told Cointelegraph that there’s a “more than 50% chance” Bitcoin will hit new all-time highs before the end of June.

Similarly, Bitcoin economist Timothy Peterson and Real Vision analyst Jamie Coutts also view Q2 as a potential breakout window. Coutts argued that markets may be underestimating the speed of a potential surge.

“It is entirely possible Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high before June,” Peterson added.

As the market navigates between consolidation and potential breakout, all eyes will remain on Bitcoin’s next major move — and whether the bulls or bears are proven right.