Bitcoin's Market Outlook: A Potential Repeat of 2024's Consolidation Phase, Says 10x Research

A leading crypto researcher suggests that Bitcoin may repeat its 2024 price pattern, where the cryptocurrency spent a significant amount of time consolidating after reaching all-time highs. According to Markus Thielen, the head crypto researcher at 10x Research, Bitcoin’s current price chart shows little evidence of a strong price recovery in the near term, with market conditions signaling indecision.

In an interview, Thielen shared his views on the likelihood of Bitcoin following a similar trajectory to 2024, where it reached an all-time high of $73,679 in March 2024, only to enter a consolidation phase for the remainder of the year. During this period, Bitcoin fluctuated within a range of about $20,000 before experiencing volatility around the time of Donald Trump’s election as U.S. President in November.

"Very possible," Thielen remarked when asked if Bitcoin could experience a similar market movement in 2025. He added that, in his analysis, Bitcoin’s recent price behavior is reminiscent of the consolidation pattern seen in 2024, but with an important caveat—market indecision.

A Pattern of Market Indecision

Thielen highlighted that Bitcoin's current chart formation resembles a "High and Tight Flag," which is typically seen as a bullish continuation pattern. However, he pointed out that the formation's lack of a precise and single flag pattern weakens the setup. According to Thielen, this could indicate market indecision rather than a straightforward bullish consolidation, leaving the future of Bitcoin's price uncertain in the short term.

“This setup is weaker due to the two flags, and it suggests that the market is indecisive rather than signaling a clear bullish trend,” he explained.

ETF Market and the Lack of a "Buy-the-Dip" Mentality

Thielen further noted that the current spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) market is not exhibiting the typical "buy-the-dip" mentality that often drives price rallies. This observation is in line with 10x Research’s view that most ETF inflows have been driven by arbitrage strategies from hedge funds, rather than genuine demand from retail investors.

Despite Bitcoin’s recent dip in price, there seems to be little incentive for investors to deploy additional capital. Thielen explained that the low funding rates and lack of strong support from the ETF market further dampen the prospects for a significant price rebound in the near future.

Bitcoin’s Recent Price Action

Since Bitcoin fell below $90,000 in early March, the market has seen a 23% decline from its January all-time high of $109,000. As of the latest market data, Bitcoin is trading at $84,290, reflecting a noticeable decline over the past few weeks. The downturn has been attributed to macroeconomic factors, including uncertainties surrounding President Trump’s proposed tariffs.

Bitcoin's price correction has raised concerns among analysts, with some predicting that the cryptocurrency may continue to decline. For instance, Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX and current chief investment officer at Maelstrom, suggested on March 10 that Bitcoin could retest $78,000. If this support level fails to hold, Hayes warned that $75,000 might be the next target.

Iliya Kalchev, a dispatch analyst at digital asset investment platform Nexo, has a more optimistic view, suggesting that the low $70,000 range could serve as a solid foundation for a more sustainable recovery.

Caution and Uncertainty Ahead

Thielen's analysis concludes with caution. He suggests that, given the current market conditions, it might be prudent to close short positions, as there is little evidence to support a strong price recovery at this stage. While Bitcoin’s long-term prospects remain a topic of debate, the near-term outlook remains uncertain, with many analysts predicting further volatility.

In summary, Bitcoin’s recent price movements and the formation of indecisive chart patterns suggest that the cryptocurrency may continue to consolidate for some time, much like it did in 2024. Investors will need to stay alert as market conditions evolve and assess whether the broader economic factors will provide the necessary support for a more sustained rally.