Bitcoin's Declining Speculative Appetite as Investors Shift Towards Safer Assets

As global trade tensions and market volatility continue to impact the financial landscape, Bitcoin and other digital assets are experiencing a shift in investor behavior. Speculative appetite in the crypto market is diminishing as investors become more risk-averse, opting for safer investment strategies amidst macroeconomic uncertainty, recent scams, and fluctuating market dynamics.

A Decline in Bitcoin’s Hot Supply Metric

One of the most telling indicators of this shift is the decline in Bitcoin’s "hot supply" metric, which measures the percentage of Bitcoin aged one week or less. According to Glassnode data, this metric has dropped significantly from 5.9% at the end of November 2024 to just 2.3% as of March 20, 2025.

This sharp decline in the supply of newly minted Bitcoin suggests that investors are moving away from short-term speculative investments in favor of more secure positions. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, noted that this trend reflects a growing focus on safer digital assets amid the recent wave of memecoin scams and market volatility.

“During uncertain times, investors are not only seeking security but are also focused on rational decision-making. In many instances, that rational choice is represented by Bitcoin,” Lee explained. “This trend isn't solely rooted in fear, it also reflects a more pragmatic approach to investing.”

Stablecoin Supply Ratio Signals Caution

The cautious sentiment is further reflected in the stablecoin supply ratio (SSR), a key metric that measures the relationship between Bitcoin and stablecoin supply. The SSR ratio recently hit a four-month low of 8, indicating a decline in stablecoin buying power relative to Bitcoin's market capitalization. Historically, SSR values below 10 signal a more hesitant investment environment, where fewer investors are taking on new, large positions.

This cautious approach mirrors the sentiment in traditional markets. Enmanuel Cardozo, a market analyst at Brickken, a platform focused on real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, explained, “US stock market trends often set the tone for risk-on assets like crypto. Right now, although the macroeconomic picture remains uncertain, these market corrections are normal and reflect a maturing market.”

Bitcoin’s Resilience Amidst Market Uncertainty

Despite the growing caution among investors, Bitcoin has continued to outperform a wide range of global assets, including the stock market, US treasuries, real estate, and precious metals, since former President Donald Trump's election. This highlights Bitcoin's resilience and potential as a store of value, especially during periods of economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

Technical analyst Kyledoops observed that the cooling of Bitcoin’s hot supply metric is indicative of a fading speculative appetite within the crypto market. In a recent post on social media, he explained, “Speculative appetite is fading, and the market is cooling off. This means fewer fresh coins in circulation, reduced liquidity, and lower market participation.”

Optimism for Bitcoin’s Long-Term Price Trajectory

Despite the current cautious mood, analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s price prospects for the remainder of 2025. Price predictions for Bitcoin range from $160,000 to over $180,000, reflecting a strong belief in its long-term growth potential. This optimism is rooted in Bitcoin's ability to weather market turbulence, maintain its position as a digital store of value, and ultimately emerge stronger as investor sentiment stabilizes.

In conclusion, while speculative activity in the crypto market has slowed, Bitcoin remains a focal point for long-term investors seeking security amid global uncertainty. With a growing number of investors opting for safer, more rational investment strategies, Bitcoin’s role as a secure digital asset continues to evolve, setting the stage for future growth in the coming years.