Bitcoin’s Chance of Reaching $125K by June Increases, Says Derive Research

Bitcoin has remained below the psychological $100,000 mark for over a week, but according to Dr. Sean Dawson, Head of Research at the on-chain options protocol Derive, the cryptocurrency’s chances of hitting $125,000 by late June have increased significantly.
In a market report on February 13, Dawson revealed that the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $125,000 by mid-2025 has improved to 44.4%, up from 41.9% in previous assessments. This indicates that Bitcoin’s upward momentum is gaining strength, despite lingering below the $100,000 threshold.
Downside Risk Shrinks
Dawson also noted that the odds of Bitcoin falling to $75,000 before June have decreased, dropping from 17.8% to 12.1%. This suggests a growing confidence in Bitcoin’s bullish potential for the first half of the year. However, not all market participants are equally optimistic about Bitcoin’s future price action.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has a more bearish outlook, predicting that Bitcoin could retreat toward the $70,000 to $75,000 range, potentially triggering a “mini financial crisis.” Bitcoin last traded near the $75,000 mark in early November, coinciding with significant market events, including the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
Current Market Conditions: Neutral Sentiment
As of the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $96,790, according to CoinMarketCap. After briefly reaching an all-time high of $109,000 in mid-January, Bitcoin has been unable to maintain momentum above the $100,000 level, which has led to "choppy" conditions in the market, as noted by crypto trader Jelle.
The market sentiment, as indicated by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, is currently "Neutral," with a score of 48 out of 100 as of February 14. This suggests uncertainty in the market, with traders awaiting a clear direction.
Long-Term Outlook: Bullish Predictions
Despite the current market indecision, long-term projections remain positive. Asset management firm VanEck forecasted in December that Bitcoin’s bull market will reach a "medium-term peak" in the first quarter of 2025, with a potential surge to $180,000 by the end of the year. Ethereum (ETH) is also expected to follow suit, with VanEck projecting ETH to reach over $6,000 at the cycle’s apex.
As the crypto market continues to navigate its volatility, all eyes will be on Bitcoin’s next move, especially as it battles to break through the $100,000 level.
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