Bitcoin’s Biggest Red Weekly Candle Ever: What to Expect This Week

Bitcoin has entered the second week of March under a cloud of uncertainty, following a dramatic price decline that saw its biggest single-week drop in US dollar terms in history. As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to face significant bearish pressure, the cryptocurrency market braces for potentially more volatility ahead.

Here’s everything you need to know about Bitcoin this week:

1. Bitcoin’s Worst Weekly Candle on Record

Bitcoin's price tumbled 14% in just seven days, closing just above $80,000 as its latest weekly candle marked its worst performance ever. The drop is significant, with Bitcoin shedding more value in one week than at any other point in its history. This sharp decline has left traders and analysts cautious, as Bitcoin edges closer to retesting its multimonth lows.

The current sentiment among many Bitcoin traders is bearish, with analyst Kevin Svenson noting that Bitcoin has reached a critical point in its weekly parabolic trend. Although the lows from the previous week have held, many are watching closely, as this could be Bitcoin’s last opportunity to avoid further downward pressure.

Trader SuperBro also noted that Bitcoin’s recent close just above the previous candle’s low and 50% retracement level provides a glimmer of hope. However, with the uptrend from October 2023 now broken, further downside remains a real possibility. For some, the low of $78,000 remains a key level to watch for a potential rebound.

2. Macro Events Fuel Bearish Sentiment

This week’s upcoming macroeconomic data releases could further fuel the bearish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for February will provide key insights into inflation trends, which could have significant implications for financial markets. February’s CPI and PPI data both exceeded expectations, creating additional uncertainty in the market.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates is expected to be announced next week, with markets already bracing for potential tightening. The odds of a rate cut in March are just 3%, and the outlook for May remains similarly pessimistic. The heightened risk-off sentiment in global markets has weighed heavily on Bitcoin, alongside broader concerns about economic growth, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDP growth estimate for Q1 2025 recently slashed to -2.8%.

3. Could Bitcoin’s Price Drop to $69,000?

With Bitcoin struggling to hold above $80,000, there’s growing speculation that the cryptocurrency could retest levels from 2021, specifically the old all-time high of around $69,000. This level has gained attention from analysts, with Timothy Peterson’s “Lowest Price Forward” model suggesting that Bitcoin is unlikely to trade below this price in the future.

Peterson’s model correctly predicted that Bitcoin would not dip below $10,000 after mid-2020, and now, many eyes are on $69,000 as a potential “floor” for Bitcoin’s price. While some believe that Bitcoin could see a retest of $78,000 or even lower, the $69,000 mark is a significant psychological level for both investors and traders.

4. Crypto Sentiment Hits Extreme Fear

The bearish sentiment in Bitcoin is not limited to just the cryptocurrency market. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has plunged into “extreme fear” territory, with the market hitting a three-year low of just 10/100 last month. Such extreme pessimism has historically been a contrarian signal, suggesting that the market could be close to a bottom.

However, traditional financial markets are also facing significant headwinds, with stocks showing a similar level of anxiety. Barchart, a leading finance resource, noted that the current sentiment in stocks is among the most bearish seen this century. Some analysts argue that extreme fear could present opportunities, recalling how markets surged after the global financial crisis and the COVID crash when sentiment was similarly low.

5. Bitcoin Whales Are Accumulating

Despite the overwhelming bearish sentiment, there’s an encouraging sign for Bitcoin bulls: large investors, or “whales,” are starting to accumulate Bitcoin again. According to research firm Santiment, wallets holding 10 BTC or more have been purchasing Bitcoin in significant amounts since the beginning of March, adding nearly 5,000 BTC to their collective holdings.

While the market has yet to reflect this buying activity, the accumulation by large players could signal a shift in sentiment. Santiment suggests that this may lay the foundation for a potential relief rally in the latter half of March, especially if these large investors continue to accumulate Bitcoin.

Conclusion: What’s Next for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin enters the second week of March in a precarious position. After its worst weekly candle on record, Bitcoin faces a host of challenges, including macroeconomic uncertainty, extreme fear in the market, and bearish sentiment among traders. The upcoming CPI and PPI data, as well as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions, will likely play a crucial role in determining whether Bitcoin can maintain its current support levels or if it will retest lower levels.

Despite the negative sentiment, there are some bright spots, such as the growing accumulation by Bitcoin whales, which could signal that the market is nearing a bottom. As always, the volatility of the cryptocurrency market means that investors will need to remain vigilant and ready to adapt to changing market conditions.

For now, the $78,000 to $69,000 price range remains crucial in determining Bitcoin’s next move, with many hoping that the worst of the market correction is behind us.