Bitcoin’s "Atypical" Bull Market Could Extend Beyond March 2025, Research Suggests

Bitcoin is experiencing a bull market that defies traditional patterns, with the network’s realized capitalization hitting new heights. As the cryptocurrency continues to evolve, some analysts suggest this current cycle may extend well beyond March 2025.

In its latest weekly newsletter, The Week Onchain, crypto analytics firm Glassnode revealed that Bitcoin’s realized cap — a metric that calculates the market capitalization based on the price at which each coin last moved on-chain — has crossed the $850 billion mark for the first time. This milestone reflects a massive increase in the “value stored” within the Bitcoin network.

Bitcoin Capital Inflows Surge

Since the depths of the 2022 crypto bear market, Bitcoin has seen a dramatic influx of capital, with nearly $500 billion in new inflows. This surge has more than doubled the network's realized cap, which stood at $400 billion in November 2022. As a result, the total "value stored" in Bitcoin has now surpassed $850 billion.

The sharp rise in capital inflows has brought Bitcoin’s realized cap to unprecedented levels, signifying a stronger market presence and greater perceived value. Over the past year, the Bitcoin network has consistently settled daily volumes around $9 billion, contributing to a cumulative total of over $3 trillion in transaction volume. This suggests that Bitcoin not only holds significant value but also has proven utility as a settlement network.

An "Atypical" Bitcoin Bull Market

Glassnode's analysis highlights the unusual nature of the current Bitcoin bull market. Historically, previous bull cycles have seen price peaks about a year after a surge in the proportion of wealth held in coins that last moved in the past three months. However, this cycle deviates from that norm.

The report notes that while new demand for Bitcoin remains strong, the volume of wealth held in coins that have not moved for three months is lower than in previous cycles. This suggests that the influx of new demand is more sporadic, occurring in bursts, rather than in a sustained manner. The result is that the market has not experienced the same kind of continuous buying pressure that typically precedes cycle peaks.

Adding to the atypical nature of the current cycle, Glassnode points out that Bitcoin first reached its most recent all-time high (ATH) in March 2024, marking a departure from the historical trend of cycles concluding roughly one year after the first ATH break.

Shifting Investor Sentiment

One key observation is the shift in investor behavior. Despite Bitcoin's higher prices, retail investors have not exhibited the same level of "FOMO" (fear of missing out) or euphoria that characterized previous cycles. Glassnode suggests that this may indicate that larger institutional players are driving the majority of the demand this time around, rather than smaller retail investors.

This shift in demand suggests that Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a valuable asset by larger-sized entities, which could have longer-term implications for its price trajectory. The absence of retail-driven euphoria might signal a more stable, sustainable bull market compared to previous cycles that were marked by intense speculative buying.

Outlook for the Future

As Bitcoin continues to see substantial capital inflows and the market remains in an "atypical" cycle, it’s possible that the current bull market could extend beyond the traditional cycle lengths seen in the past. Glassnode’s analysis suggests that the macro top for Bitcoin may still be far away, with the next major price peak potentially extending into 2025 or beyond.

In conclusion, Bitcoin’s ongoing bull market is showing characteristics that set it apart from previous cycles, suggesting that this current phase of growth could last longer than expected. With institutional demand driving the market and the network continuing to accumulate value, Bitcoin’s future remains promising, though the typical patterns of past cycles may not apply.