Bitcoin Risks Sub-$92K Retest as Gold Outperforms Amid Market Uncertainty

Bitcoin is once again underperforming gold as macroeconomic developments drive renewed demand for traditional safe havens. With gold posting nearly 5% in week-to-date gains, Bitcoin has struggled to hold key support levels and may be poised for a retest below $92,000.

Gold Shines, Bitcoin Stalls

As of the Wall Street open on May 6, Bitcoin was trading at around $93,980, eyeing fresh month-to-date lows. Price action has remained stagnant, with BTC/USD unable to break above $95,000 and inching toward the yearly open support at $93,500.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, XAU/USD (gold) surged 1.5% on the day and 4.4% over the week, drawing investor attention amid ongoing volatility in global currency and equity markets.

Crypto Markets "Largely Directionless"

According to a market update from QCP Capital, the crypto space remains in limbo:

“Crypto implied vols remain suppressed, with front-end skew drifting back toward neutral and spot largely directionless.”

QCP noted that a weaker U.S. dollar, rising emerging market currencies (like the Taiwanese dollar), and geopolitical risk are fueling a bullish gold narrative, which has yet to carry over to Bitcoin.

XAU/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

They warn of an “increasingly binary” phase ahead for BTC: either decoupling from gold’s safe-haven narrative or relinking with broader risk-on assets.

Is the "Gold Then Bitcoin" Trend Still Intact?

Trading insights firm The Kobeissi Letter argued the broader macro trend still supports a correlation between gold and Bitcoin, stating:

“In April, Bitcoin joined the gold run… Between April 7th and April 21st, gold surged +15% along with +12% in Bitcoin.”

Bitcoin vs. gold comparison. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

This supports the idea of a “flight to decentralized and inflation-protected assets” in response to global economic uncertainty.

Technical Indicators Signal Mixed Momentum

Technical traders are also watching MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) trends closely. While the weekly MACD shows bullish momentum, the daily MACD has crossed into bearish territory—hinting at slowing momentum in the short term.

“BTC is consolidating between last week’s high and low, awaiting tomorrow’s FOMC meeting and Jerome Powell’s speech. Meanwhile, the daily MACD is crossing bearish,” summarized analyst Titan of Crypto.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart with MACD data. Source: Titan of Crypto/X

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on May 7 is expected to be a key catalyst for near-term price action across risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Key Support Levels in Focus

Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, expressed skepticism about BTC’s ability to hold its yearly open:

“To summarize, I'll be pleasantly surprised if the YO holds… While I'm prepared for a wick to the $88K–$90K range, I think the $91.6K level around the 21 MA is a likely target this week.”

BTC/USD 1-week chart with 21SMA. Source: TradingView

With uncertainty building ahead of the Fed meeting and gold continuing its climb, Bitcoin faces pressure both from the macro environment and within its technical structure. A decisive move—up or down—appears imminent.