Bitcoin Rally Above $100K May Follow US Treasury Buybacks, Says Arthur Hayes

Bitcoin’s Next Breakout May Be Just Around the Corner

Bitcoin is once again capturing the spotlight, with analysts pointing to macroeconomic shifts that could fuel a surge past the long-awaited $100,000 milestone. According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, upcoming US Treasury buybacks could act as a major bullish catalyst.

Source: Arthur Hayes

“Seriously fam, this might be the last chance you have to buy $BTC < $100k,” Hayes wrote in an April 21 post on X, describing the Treasury’s financial maneuver as the potential “bazooka” that could send Bitcoin prices skyrocketing.

What Are Treasury Buybacks — and Why Do They Matter?

US Treasury buybacks involve the government repurchasing outstanding bonds from the open market. These actions are typically used to inject liquidity, manage interest rates, or reduce long-term debt obligations.

Crucially, buybacks can flood markets with liquidity, encouraging capital to flow into risk assets like Bitcoin. Hayes suggests that such a liquidity event, coupled with growing disillusionment with fiat currencies, could ignite the next leg of Bitcoin’s bull run.

Expanding Money Supply Could Push BTC Above $132K

BTC projection to $132,000 on M2 money supply growth. Source: Jamie Coutts

Other analysts are also anticipating explosive upside. Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, forecasts that the expanding fiat money supply could be Bitcoin’s primary driver in 2025, with the asset potentially exceeding $132,000 by year-end.

Despite some caution over escalating trade tensions between the US and China, long-term sentiment remains firmly bullish. “The growth of the money supply and institutional demand will outweigh near-term geopolitical friction,” Coutts said.

Dollar Weakness Reinforces Bitcoin’s Safe-Haven Appeal

Bitcoin recently surged past $87,700, hitting a three-week high following a renewed drop in the US Dollar Index, which touched its lowest level since March 2022.

BTC, DXY, 1-year chart. Source: TradingView

“Looks like Bitcoin is pumping on continued Dollar weakness,” noted André Dragosch, head of European research at Bitwise. The inverse relationship between Bitcoin and the US dollar continues to strengthen, reinforcing BTC’s reputation as a hedge against currency debasement.

Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, also emphasized the growing correlation between Bitcoin and gold, suggesting that both are gaining strength as alternative stores of value. “Strong volume and technical confirmation from a descending wedge breakout suggest a potential test of the $90,000 resistance,” Lee said.

Institutional Interest Continues to Accelerate

Despite recent price volatility, global institutions are increasingly betting on Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. Investment firms from Japan and the UK have poured hundreds of millions of dollars into Bitcoin over recent months, adding momentum to what many see as an accelerated four-year cycle.

This institutional influx, combined with macroeconomic shifts and regulatory clarity in key markets, is creating a perfect storm for Bitcoin’s next major rally.

The Window Is Closing

With momentum building, Arthur Hayes and others warn that the sub-$100K era for Bitcoin may soon come to an end. Between Treasury liquidity injections, weakening fiat currencies, and global institutional adoption, Bitcoin may be poised to enter a new price regime — one where six-figure BTC becomes the norm, not the exception.

For investors still on the sidelines, the message is clear: the clock is ticking.