3 Reasons Why Bitcoin’s Rally to $125K Might Be Delayed

Bitcoin Recovers Quickly, But the Path to $125K Faces Headwinds

Bitcoin (BTC) has once again demonstrated remarkable resilience. Less than 48 hours after Friday’s sudden $19 billion flash crash, the world’s largest cryptocurrency climbed back above $114,000, erasing much of its immediate losses.

Despite the swift rebound, analysts caution that a new all-time high above $125,000 may take longer than expected, with several short-term risks weighing on sentiment.

Friday’s crash wiped out nearly $15 billion in BTC futures open interest, one of the largest single-session declines in recent months. Although long-term demand remains firm, risk appetite among traders has clearly weakened, pointing to a potential delay in Bitcoin’s next rally phase.

1. Macroeconomic Uncertainty Dampens Risk Appetite

Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory continues to be influenced by global macroeconomic conditions, especially in the U.S. labor market and trade policy.

Recent data from The Wall Street Journal, citing Carlyle estimates, showed that U.S. employers added just 17,000 jobs in September, down from 22,000 in August — signaling softening economic momentum.

As investors sought safety, demand for U.S. government bonds surged, pushing 10-year yields toward 3.5%. At the same time, renewed fears of an escalating trade conflict between the United States and China have added uncertainty. The temporary truce that limited import tariffs is set to expire on November 10, heightening volatility across risk assets.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that an extension “should be worked out,” though no binding agreement has been confirmed. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticized China’s rare earth export restrictions as “provocative,” warning they could further strain global supply chains crucial for tech and semiconductor production.

Adding to the uncertainty, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown has delayed major data releases, including inflation and producer cost reports, leaving the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps unclear. Investors now await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Tuesday for direction — but until greater clarity emerges, Bitcoin may remain under pressure.

Source: X/joemccann

2. Derivatives Market Disruptions Highlight Counterparty Risk

Friday’s liquidity shock also revealed vulnerabilities in Bitcoin’s derivatives markets.

Some exchanges still show price discrepancies between perpetual futures and spot markets, suggesting limited participation from major market makers and heightened counterparty risk.

At Binance, the BTC perpetual futures funding rate remains negative, indicating traders are paying to maintain short positions. On other exchanges, rates have normalized, creating short-term arbitrage opportunities but also reflecting lingering market dislocation.

Joe McCann, founder and CEO of Asymmetric Financial, commented on X that a “very large market maker” may have been wiped out during Friday’s crash. This would explain the sharp price gaps across exchanges and the “insane dislocations” seen on Binance.

Even if these anomalies are temporary, traders appear reluctant to re-enter with high leverage until liquidity conditions stabilize.

Meanwhile, Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek called for a regulatory review into how some exchanges handled liquidation triggers and internal trading practices during the event, citing platform downtimes that affected only select users.

Such developments have left institutional traders cautious — a factor that could delay renewed bullish momentum until confidence in derivatives infrastructure returns.

3. Sentiment Reset Delays the Next Bullish Leg

While Bitcoin’s fundamentals — including scarcity, decentralization, and independence from traditional financial systems — remain intact, its short-term risk sentiment has deteriorated.

Following the “Black Friday” crash, traders are showing reduced appetite for leverage and greater sensitivity to macro headlines. The market’s transition from high speculative exposure to cautious accumulation often precedes stronger rallies — but such recoveries typically take weeks or months to fully materialize.

In essence, Bitcoin’s latest pullback appears to be less about weakening demand and more about a forced reset of speculative leverage, allowing long-term investors to accumulate in calmer conditions.

Conclusion: Consolidation Before the Next Breakout

Bitcoin’s ability to recover from one of the most aggressive liquidations of 2025 underscores its long-term strength and investor conviction. Yet the road to $125,000 is likely to be gradual, not explosive.

Persistent macroeconomic uncertainty, cautious derivatives activity, and lingering risk aversion could keep Bitcoin in a consolidation phase before the next decisive breakout.

If global markets stabilize and liquidity returns to crypto derivatives, Bitcoin’s structural bull trend remains on track — just with a delayed timeline.

See all our latest insights: Bitcoin World News