coin Pulls Back From $124K, But Indicators Point to $150K Ahead
Bitcoin’s $124K Peak: Not the Cycle Top
Bitcoin (BTC) briefly surged to $124,500 before retreating to around $109,819, raising concerns that the cycle’s top may already be in. However, according to trader and analyst Merlijn The Trader, the so-called “$124K top” is more noise than signal.
In a market update, Merlijn emphasized that all 30 widely tracked peak indicators remain neutral, a stark contrast to previous cycle tops where multiple metrics flashed overheating warnings.
On-Chain Indicators Remain Neutral
Key metrics support the argument that Bitcoin’s rally has more room to run:
- Puell Multiple: Currently at 1.39, well below the 2.2 “danger zone” that has historically signaled miner-driven market tops.
- MVRV Z-Score: Still neutral, indicating BTC is not yet trading at unsustainable premiums relative to capital inflows.
Historically, cycle peaks have coincided with widespread overheating across these on-chain models. By comparison, today’s readings remain subdued.
Source: https://x.com/ThisIsNuse/status/1960107370987794692
Market Shakeout: Weak Hands Exit, Strong Hands Hold
Data from analyst CrazzyBlockk highlights a divergence between new and experienced Bitcoin holders:
- New holders (<1 month): Sitting on -3.5% unrealized losses, now capitulating.
- Short-Term Holders (1–6 months): Still profitable with +4.5% unrealized gains.
“This is a bullish structural development,” CrazzyBlockk notes, as weak hands sell at a loss and coins migrate to more resilient holders with lower cost bases. Such shakeouts often establish strong support for the next rally phase.
$70M in Longs Liquidated: Market Resets
The pullback triggered the liquidation of $70 million in BTC longs after Bitcoin dipped below $111,000 on Binance.
According to analyst Amr Taha:
- Open Interest (OI) dropped sharply, signaling flushed leverage.
- Binance Cumulative Net Taker Volume plunged by $1 billion, reflecting heavy sell-side pressure.
“The absence of a short squeeze suggests latent upside potential,” Taha explained. With leveraged buyers cleared out, the market may now be better positioned for a recovery.
Key Technical Levels to Watch
From a weekly perspective, Bitcoin’s pullback looks like a standard bull market correction, not a cycle top:
- 20-week EMA (≈$108,000): Still intact as dynamic support since early 2023.
- 50-week EMA (≈$95,300): Historical bottoming zone during prior pullbacks.
If BTC rebounds from the 20-week EMA, the path remains open for a retest of the $125,500 all-time high and an eventual rally toward $150,000 by late 2025.
However, a breakdown below the 20-week EMA could trigger a deeper correction toward $95,000.
Conclusion
Despite short-term volatility and a flush of weak hands, Bitcoin’s on-chain data and technical structure suggest the bull run is far from over. With neutral peak indicators, healthy market resets, and support intact at the 20-week EMA, the $124K peak appears unlikely to be the final top.
If Bitcoin continues to hold key levels, the next upside target of $150,000 remains firmly on the table for this cycle.
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