Bitcoin Price Rises Ahead of U.S. Jobs Report as Market Sell-Off Approaches Its End

Crypto investors are on edge as they await the release of the September jobs report and the Federal Reserve’s potential response regarding interest rate cuts in November. In early European trading today, Bitcoin climbed to a high of $61,600 before pulling back to around $61,300, reflecting a 1% gain on the day, according to CoinGecko.

The release of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' September jobs report is seen as a key event for shaping future Federal Reserve policies, particularly in relation to interest rate cuts, which could have significant implications for the crypto market. Ethereum also saw a slight increase of 1.1%, trading at $2,375, though both cryptocurrencies have experienced declines over the past week, with Bitcoin down 7% and Ethereum down 11%.

U.S. Jobs Report Expected to Influence Crypto Market

The September jobs report, scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to offer insights into the U.S. economy's health and the Federal Reserve's next steps. Economists anticipate a modest drop in nonfarm payrolls from 142,000 in August to 140,000 in September, while the unemployment rate is predicted to remain steady at 4.2%. The Federal Reserve’s response will be crucial, as a stable economic outlook could lead to a more gradual rate-cut cycle, potentially creating a favorable environment for a rebound in crypto prices.

Despite recent market volatility, some analysts believe that Bitcoin may be approaching a short-term recovery. CryptoQuant’s analysis of the Coinbase Premium Index indicates that demand from U.S.-based investors remains strong, with the daily moving average crossing above the weekly moving average—a pattern historically associated with subsequent price increases.

This view aligns with recent market activity, where Bitcoin corrected from $66,000 to $61,000 at the start of October. CryptoQuant’s analysis suggests that these conditions could lead to a near-term recovery in Bitcoin’s price.

ETF Flows and Market Sentiment

Meanwhile, data on exchange-traded funds (ETFs) paints a mixed picture of investor sentiment. On October 3, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a third consecutive day of net outflows, totaling $54.1 million. This included outflows of $37.2 million from the (FBTC) ETF and $57.9 million from (ARKB), according to data from SoSo Value. In contrast, the (IBIT) ETF reported inflows of $35.9 million, indicating that some investors continue to see value in Bitcoin amid broader market sell-offs. Ethereum spot ETFs also reported net outflows of $3.1 million, reflecting caution among investors.

Is the Sell-Off Nearing Its End?

Analysts at 10x Research offer a cautiously optimistic perspective, suggesting that the current sell-off could be nearing its conclusion. Historically, Bitcoin has seen corrections reverse between the 5th and 7th of each month, hinting that a turning point may be near.

"The early-month sell-off is nearing its end, as lows typically occur between the 5th and 7th of each month," 10x Research noted. The firm attributes recent market declines to weak ISM manufacturing data and concerns about U.S. employment, but also points to solid evidence of continued U.S. economic growth, which could lead to a more measured rate-cut approach by the Federal Reserve.

Institutional investors, particularly over-the-counter (OTC) desks, have played a significant role in recent market movements. Data suggests that these desks have been actively selling Bitcoin, contributing to its drop from $65,000 to $61,000. However, as their balances begin to rebuild, the selling pressure appears to be easing.

Analysts at 10x Research also highlight that investor sentiment seems relatively calm, with low implied volatility and minimal demand for put options, indicating limited concern over further downside risks. Historically, Bitcoin futures liquidations have often signaled market bottoms, further suggesting that the current sell-off might be nearing its end.

As the market awaits the September jobs report and the Federal Reserve’s response, crypto investors remain cautiously optimistic, hoping for signs of recovery in the coming days.