Bitcoin Price Prediction: $118K Rebound Ahead or Risk of $105K Crash?
Retail Traders Buy the Dip, but Whales Keep Selling
Despite heavy buying activity from retail investors, Bitcoin (BTC) remains locked in a short-term downtrend. Data shows that smaller traders have been scooping up BTC during the recent correction, while institutional and whale investors continue to unload positions.
Over the past few days, Bitcoin has bounced only 2.4% from its $108,665 low, trading around $113,041 at press time. Meanwhile, Ether (ETH) staged a stronger recovery, rallying more than 8% from $4,310 to $4,663.
Related: Bitcoin Predictions for 2025 and Global Crypto Highlights: Weekly Recap
BTC/USDT 15-min chart. Source: Hyblock
On Binance and Coinbase, retail traders have shown strong conviction, with net spot buying volumes exceeding $101 million on Coinbase alone. However, institutional participants and whales—classified as traders moving $1 million to $10 million per order—have remained net sellers, unloading approximately $7.5 billion across perpetual futures markets.
CVD Data Reveals a Divergence in Market Sentiment
The anchored cumulative volume delta (CVD) highlights the divergence:
- Retail traders (1K–10K order sizes): Consistently net buyers during the dip.
- Whales and institutions (1M–10M orders): Net sellers, though their selling intensity has slowed as BTC reclaimed the $111,000 zone.
This imbalance in flows suggests that retail enthusiasm is being absorbed by larger sellers, which is keeping Bitcoin’s price under pressure despite repeated dip-buying attempts.
BTC/USDT 15-min chart. Source: Hyblock
$118K Recovery vs. $105K Breakdown
Market data from Hyblock’s liquidation heatmap indicates key liquidity zones:
- Strong bids clustered around $111K–$110K, which helped absorb last weekend’s sell-off.
- Another major cluster near $104K, which could act as a magnet if downside momentum accelerates.
While a sharp drop to $105K is viewed as less likely in the near term, continued whale-driven selling raises concerns about Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim the $117K–$118K resistance zone.
For traders, the daily aggregated CVD will be a critical indicator. A shift from persistent selling to neutral or net buying by larger players may mark the beginning of a trend reversal. Until then, the path of least resistance remains uncertain.
BTC/USDT 1-month lookback liquidation heatmap. Source: Hyblock
Conclusion: Patience May Be Key
Retail traders appear confident that Bitcoin is undervalued at current levels, betting on a quick rebound. However, institutional selling continues to weigh heavily on price action.
BTC/USDT 1-month lookback liquidation heatmap. Source: Hyblock
Whether BTC retests $118K or risks sliding toward $105K will likely depend on whether whale selling pressure eases in the coming sessions. For now, Bitcoin remains in a tug-of-war between enthusiastic dip buyers and cautious large-scale sellers.
FAQs
Q1. What is the latest Bitcoin price outlook for 2025?
Bitcoin faces resistance at $118K, while strong support lies near $105K, depending on whale activity and retail demand.
Q2. Why are whales selling Bitcoin while retail traders buy?
Whales continue profit-taking and futures selling, while retail investors see dips as buying opportunities.
Q3. Can Bitcoin rebound to $118K in the short term?
Yes, if institutional selling slows and liquidity clusters at $111K hold, BTC could test $117K–$118K resistance.
Q4. What happens if Bitcoin breaks below $110K support?
A breakdown could trigger liquidity toward $105K, where major buy orders are clustered.
Q5. Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin?
Retail traders believe BTC is undervalued, but investors should watch whale selling trends and risk management before entering.
Disclaimer: The content on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. We do not endorse any project or product. Readers should conduct their own research and assume full responsibility for their decisions. We are not liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information provided. Crypto investments carry risks.
