Bitcoin Could Hit $115K by July If US Job Data Disappoints, Say Analysts

Summary

Bitcoin (BTC) could break past $115,000 by early July if institutional inflows remain strong and the upcoming US jobs report points to economic softening, according to Bitfinex analysts. However, stronger labor data may cap gains or trigger a pullback below $100,000.

Background or Context

Bitcoin rallied to a new local high of $111,970 on May 22 amid strong spot ETF inflows and bullish sentiment but has since cooled off to around $104,823. While still significantly elevated, the pullback has prompted market watchers to pay close attention to macroeconomic signals—especially the June 6 U.S. jobs report.

Read More : Bitcoin Could Hit $220K in 2025 Based on Gold-Linked Forecasts, Say Analysts

The outcome of this report will be a key factor in determining the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rate cuts, which remain a major catalyst for Bitcoin’s medium-term trajectory.

May saw spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. record approximately $5.24 billion in inflows, reflecting sustained institutional interest despite price volatility.

Bitcoin is down 3.16% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap

Key Quotes or Reactions

Bitfinex analysts told:

“In a bullish scenario, driven by strong institutional interest and ETF inflows, Bitcoin could touch $115,000 or higher by early July.”

They also noted that:

“A stronger-than-expected [jobs] report might delay rate cuts, strengthening the dollar and possibly exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin.”

Meanwhile, a softer report could trigger rate cut hopes:

“A softer-than-expected report could reinforce the disinflation narrative and encourage the Fed to consider reducing interest rates sooner, which would be bullish for Bitcoin.”

Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, added back in March:

“The market may be underestimating how quickly Bitcoin could surge and could potentially hit an all-time high before the end of the second quarter.”

Related Events or Impacts

Bitcoin sentiment remains elevated. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index currently shows a “Greed” reading of 57/100, suggesting investors are still risk-on. However, the recent pullback has caused caution in short-term trading circles.

A stronger-than-expected jobs report may delay monetary easing, pushing BTC down to test support levels near $102,000 or possibly between $95,000–$97,000 — areas where Bitfinex believes “good accumulation” could take place.

This would not be the first time BTC returned to the $97K level — it briefly dipped there on May 7 before rebounding.

Read More: Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Could Hit $250K in 2025 If Fed Shifts to Quantitative Easing

Current Status & What’s Next

Bitcoin is currently trading just above $104,000, with price direction hinging on June's U.S. labor market data. If the numbers point to a cooling economy, expectations for Fed rate cuts could fuel a strong BTC breakout past $115,000.

Traders should watch for volatility surrounding the June 6 report and monitor ETF inflow data as leading indicators. A break above May’s high would mark a new all-time high and could ignite further bullish momentum going into Q3.

Final Takeaway:

Bitcoin’s path to $115K is closely tied to macro signals and institutional behavior. The next U.S. jobs report could prove a decisive catalyst for BTC’s direction — either fueling a breakout or triggering a temporary reset. Investors should stay alert and prepare for volatility in early June.