Will Bitcoin Price Drop to $110K? Short-Term Holders Dump 22K BTC at a Loss

Bitcoin Faces Selling Pressure from Short-Term Holders

Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a correction phase after setting a fresh all-time high of $124,500 last week. The price has since retraced 7.6%, dipping below $116,000, with heightened caution in the market ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.

On-chain data shows that short-term holders (STHs) — investors who typically hold Bitcoin for less than 155 days — have been realizing losses at a growing pace. According to CryptoQuant, over 22,000 BTC were moved to exchanges at a loss since Sunday, a sign of capitulation among weaker hands.

BTC short-term holder losses to exchanges in 24 Hours. Source: CryptoQuant

Related: Bitcoin Analyst Predicts $145K Target as BTC Holds Firm Above $100K

Panic Selling Resurfaces

The wave of selling intensified between Sunday and Tuesday. Data from Glassnode indicates:

• 1,670 BTC were sent to exchanges at a loss on Sunday.

• By Tuesday, this figure surged to 23,520 BTC, coinciding with a 3.5% price decline from $118,600 to $114,400.

Notably, most of these transactions came from short-term holders, while long-term holders (LTHs) represented just 10% of the total loss-driven exchange flows.

This mirrors past cycles where short-term speculators panic-sold during corrections, often creating temporary sell-offs that cleared the way for stronger rebounds.

BTC: Transfer volume by LTH/STH in profit/loss to exchanges. Source: Glassnode

Historical Context: A Familiar Reset?

CryptoQuant analyst Kripto Mevsimi noted that this is the first significant loss-realization event by STHs since January, when Bitcoin experienced the deepest correction of the current cycle.

“STH-SOPR multiples have slipped back below 1, showing that short-term investors are once again realizing losses,” the analyst explained.

Historically, such activity has led to two possible outcomes:

• Extended weakness, where continuous loss realization signals momentum breakdown.

• Healthy reset, where flushing out “weak hands” stabilizes the market and sets the stage for sustainable rallies.

Bitcoin STH SOPR Multiples 30DMA/365DMA. Source: CryptoQuant

Bears Eye $110K — But $100K Support Remains Strong

Bitcoin’s drop below $115,000 has reignited bearish predictions, with some traders targeting the $110K–$112K zone as the next demand area.

• Swissblock, a trading firm, argued that pushing Bitcoin under $100,000 would be extremely difficult. The asset has built a “$100K–$110K wall” over the past 100 days, which may act as a strong defense zone.

• Analyst AlphaBTC suggested that a close below Monday’s low at $114,700 could open the door for a test of the $110,000–$112,000 range.

• Prediction market Polymarket assigned a 73% probability that Bitcoin closes the week near $114,000, with a 39% chance of dipping under $112,000. Odds for $110,000 and $108,000 stood at 18% and 16%, respectively.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Swissblock

Related: Swiss National Bank President Dismisses Bitcoin as a Reserve Asset

Conclusion: Consolidation or Correction Ahead?

Bitcoin’s recent pullback is testing investor sentiment, with short-term holders leading the sell-off while long-term holders remain relatively steady. While a dip to $110K is possible if bearish momentum builds, analysts agree that breaking below $100K will be a far greater challenge.

As markets brace for macroeconomic cues from the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin could continue to consolidate within its current range — balancing between profit-taking near all-time highs and renewed accumulation from stronger hands.

Source: AlphaBTC