Will Bitcoin Break Out to $141K or Drop to $110K? Short-Term Holders Hold the Key

Bitcoin’s price action remains at a critical crossroads. According to new data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, the market could be gearing up for one of two major moves: either a breakout rally toward $141,000, or a potential retracement to the $110,000 support zone.

Short-Term Holders Define Bitcoin’s Price Gravity

Glassnode’s latest Week Onchain report highlights that short-term holders (STHs)—those who acquired BTC in the last 155 days—are shaping the immediate price landscape.

• STH cost basis concentration: A large cluster of buying activity has occurred between $117K and $122K, creating a strong zone of support.

• Lack of buying support below $115K: There’s a noticeable volume gap between $115K and $110K, suggesting little on-chain buying occurred as the price quickly moved through this range earlier in the month.

“There remains an air-gap of volume just beneath the spot price, from $115K to $110K... the market may want to re-confirm if support will step in,” Glassnode explains.

This means if Bitcoin slips from current levels, there is a real risk it could quickly drop 7% to $110,000, simply to “fill in” this support vacuum.

Bitcoin cost basis distribution heatmap (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

Related: Bitcoin Holds Strong at $119K Despite Fresh $450M Galaxy Digital Outflows

The Bullish Scenario: $141K in Sight

On the flip side, if bullish momentum returns and Bitcoin breaks out to new highs, Glassnode sees the $141K level as the next key resistance zone. Why?

• Using standard deviation bands around short-term holder cost bases, the firm estimates that +2σ (two standard deviations above average) aligns with the $141K mark.

• This level is where short-term holders would see significant unrealized profits, making it a likely area for profit-taking and potential sell-side pressure.

“The $141K region is likely to present the next major zone of resistance where sell-side pressure may intensify rapidly,” the report notes.

Bitcoin STH cost basis by cohort (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

Bearish Scenario: BTC Pullback

• Support Gap: Between $115K–$110K — little on-chain buying activity

• Risk Zone: If short-term holders sell, BTC may fall 7% to $110K

• Glassnode Warning: “Gravity” exists in this volume air-gap; market may retest support

Bullish Scenario: Breakout to $141K

• Profit Target: $141K aligns with +2σ standard deviation zone

• Sell Pressure Risk: Short-term holders may take profits at this level

• Glassnode Note: “$141K is a likely zone where sell-side pressure intensifies”

Short-term holders, often referred to as “speculators,” are now acting as the dominant market force. Their behavior—whether holding firm or locking in profits—will likely determine the next significant price move.

Bitcoin STH cost basis standard deviations (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

Related: U.S. Seeks Forfeiture of $2.4M in Bitcoin Seized from Chaos Ransomware Group